Early Kentucky Derby Betting Analysis

Posted by Aaron . on April 29, 2016 in

On May 7, the 142nd edition of the Kentucky Derby will take off. Right now, Nyquist is still the horse racing betting favorite, by virtue of his undefeated record. He won the Florida Derby and sits right now at +300 for Churchill Downs. However, there are 20 total contenders in the race, which means that there is a ton of betting value out there.

Early Kentucky Derby Betting Analysis



The next tier of favorites is Exaggerator (+800), who won the Santa Anita Derby. Mohaymen (+1000) carried away the Fountain of Youth, and these two are the next two biggest favorites. After you get past the top three, there is a crowded pack of horses, each of which could jump ahead of the rest and gallop to victory. It’s true that the last three Derbies have gone to favorites (Orb, California Chrome and American Pharaoh), but in 2012, I’ll Have Another won at 15-1 and in 2011, Animal Kingdom won at 20-1. Mine that Bird (2009) and Giacomo (2005) won and paid off quite handsomely, over $100 to win.

Creator (+2000) took first in the Arkansas Derby his last time out. American Pharaoh won that race in 2015 as well, and it served as a strong springboard to help him take the Triple Crown. Outwork (+2000) took home the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in his last race. The Kentucky Derby will represent his fifth career start. His trainer, Todd Pletcher, won the Kentucky Derby in 2010 with Super Saver.

Brody’s Cause (+1200) won the Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland in his last race, which gave him his ticket to the Kentucky Derby. He was the betting favorite at the last Tampa Bay Derby, but he fell off the table and disappointed more than a few bettors.

No Japanese horse has won the Kentucky Derby, but Lani wants to change that. He won the UAE Derby in Dubai to stamp his ticket to Churchill Downs. Even so, he is a big underdog, listed at +3300. Whitmore (+3300) has run well but has yet to win any of his prep races. My Man Sam (+2500) took second at that Blue Grass in his stakes debut. Toss in Mo Tom has had two dreadful starts in a row.

What’s the bottom line? There are a lot of horses who could win this race, which means that this will be an exciting betting opportunity. You’ll want to do more in-depth research about the different horses before you put your money down, but in a year like this one, the only certainty is that there will be no certainty until someone crosses the finish line.