Tennis Betting: ATP 2021 French Open Odds Update

Posted by Derrick Harper on May 18, 2021 in

As the 2021 French Open draws near, the big question remains: Is there anyone who can stop the “King of Clay” Rafael Nadal? Although it’ll take over a month before we get a clear answer, the bookmakers seem to agree that there are not many tennis players capable of such a feat.

The world no.3 travels to France as a -120 favorite to win his fifth consecutive French Open title and his career 14th.  Close behind is current world no.1 Novak Djoković at +200, with the two-time finalists Dominic Thiem in third at +400. Let’s have another look at the upcoming ATP event so you can wager against their French Open odds.

Early Week Betting Update for the 2021 ATP French Open

2021 French Open

  • When: Monday, May 24
  • Where: Stade Roland Garros, Paris, France

Odds to Win 2021 French Open

  • Rafael Nadal -120
  • Novak Djokovic +200
  • Dominic Thiem +400
  • Stefanos Tsitsipas +800
  • Andrey Rublev +1800
  • Daniil Medvedev +1800
  • Alexander Zverev +2000
  • Diego Schwartzman +2500
  • Roger Federer +3000
  • Jannik Sinner +3300
  • Aslan Karatsev +3300
  • Stan Wawrinka +5000
  • Matteo Berrettini +6600
  • Denis Shapovalov +6600
  • Pablo Carreno Busta +6600
  • Roberto Bautista-Agut +8000

There weren’t any major 2021 French Open outright odds shift in the last week, which doesn’t surprise us one bit. Nadal, Djoković, Thiem, and Tsitsipas remain as the main four favorites to hoist the trophy with the rest of the field far behind in the outright betting markets.

Can any of the favorites stop Nadal?

Rafael Nadal has won the French Open 13 times in his career – including four consecutive times in just as many appearances between 2017-2020. The Spaniard, however, enters the 2021 French Open in somewhat shaky form.

He has lost to Alexander Zverev (4-6, 4-6) quarterfinals in Madrid, and has before his Barcelona Open title suffered another quarterfinal loss against Andrev Rublev (2-6, 6-4, 2-6). Yet he is still priced as a -120 favorite to hoist the trophy at the Stade Roland Garros.

Given his success over the years, it’s fair to say that he should be heavily favored to win, largely because he doesn’t go down easily at his favorite tournament. That said, there are a couple of tennis players who could potentially prove us otherwise.

Djokovic has tried it before

When we talk about which player can defeat Nadal, the current world no.1 Novak Djokovic should come to your mind. The two tennis giants are fairly equally matched, and they usually produce close affairs.

That said, it’s Nadal who has proven to be the better of the two, particularly on the clay surface – and it’s very difficult to expect that trend to change here.

What’s more, Djokovic has had his fair share of slip-ups since he won the 2021 Australian Open 2021. He crashed out from Monte Carlo Masters in Round of 16 when he lost to Daniel Evans (4-6, 5-7), failed to deliver against Aslan Karatsev (5-7, 6-4, 4-6) in Serbia Open, and let’s not forget that Djokovic also lost against Nadal in the 2020 French Open Finals.

Thiem eyeing his third French Open finals rematch

Then there’s Dominic Thiem, who Nadal knows all too well. Nadal and Thiem met in two straight French Open finals (2018, 2019), yet it was Nadal who came out ahead on both occasions.

The two have met only 15 times in their careers, with Nadal holding a marginal 9-6 head-to-head lead. It’s worth mentioning, however, that Thiem got the better of Nadal in both of their last two meetings – at the 2020 Australian Open and 2020 Nitto ATP Finals Great Britain. The two haven’t met since.

While Thiem travels to Roland-Garros with a poor 8-5 record, he usually does well in France, and you can’t discredit his quarterfinals appearance in 2020 either. What’s more, Thiem has won 75.8% of matches on clay, which is lower than Nadal’s 90.4%, but still a very impressive percentage.

Stefanos Tsitsipas more than an outsider

Stefanos Tsitsipas travels to France as the fourth-favorite to win the title, which is fair, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t stand a chance to win his first Grand Slam.

The Greek is enjoying a very impressive season. He has reached the quarterfinals in Miami, semi-finals of the Australian Open and ATP Rotterdam, as well as finals of Mexican Open, Monte Carlo Masters, and Barcelona Open.

In Barcelona, he clashed with Nadal, who bested him with 6-4, 6-7, 7-5. It marked Nadal’s seventh victory against Tsitsipas (7-2) and only his first of the year after Tsitsipas beat him in the quarterfinals of the 2021 Australian Open.

Tsitsipas has proven he can go toe-to-toe with Nadal before, and we can be sure he’ll do his best to prove his quality if the two end up meeting on the French clay.