Tennis Betting: 2021 French Open Odds Analysis & Predictions

Tennis Betting: 2021 French Open Odds Analysis & Predictions

Written by on May 12, 2021

We’re still a couple of weeks away from the 2021 French Open kick-off, but that won’t stop us from diving deep into what the second Grand Slam of the year has in store for us – and, most importantly, which tennis players are worth wagering on against their French Open odds.

ATP French Open 2021 Odds and Predictions

To no one’s surprise, Rafael Nadal (-120) aka. the “King of Clay” is the undisputed favorite to win at the Roland Garros Stadium and secure his record 14th title. Second in line is the current world no.1 Novak Djoković at +200, while Dominic Thiem sits in third, priced as high as +400.

As per usual, the main question on everyone’s mind ahead of Roland Garros is not so much what will happen, but instead if there is anyone who can beat Nadal?

Odds to Win 2021 French Open

  • Rafael Nadal -120
  • Novak Djokovic +200
  • Dominic Thiem +400
  • Stefanos Tsitsipas +800
  • Daniil Medvedev +1800
  • Andrey Rublev +1800
  • Alexander Zverev +2000
  • Diego Schwartzman +2500
  • Roger Federer +3000
  • Jannik Sinner +3300
  • Stan Wawrinka +5000
  • Denis Shapovalov +6600
  • Pablo Carreno-Busta +6600
  • Matteo Berrettini +6600

Favorites to win 2021 French Open

  • Rafael Nadal (-120)

No one should be surprised seeing Rafael Nadal priced as the odds-on favorite to win the French Open for the 14th time. However, you have to ask yourself whether betting on him at -120 is worth it.

Last week, Nadal suffered a major blow ahead of the French Open after his defeat to Alexander Zverev in Madrid, meaning he will not be one of the two top-seeded players in Paris. Although this likely won’t harm his chances to win, it might indirectly benefit other players.

  • Novak Djoković (+200)

Novak Djoković is the world no.1 tennis player for a good reason, but he is not nearly as successful on clay as Nadal. The Serbian tennis star met Nadal in the 2020 French Open finals, where he got completely trashed, losing 0-6, 2-6. and 5-7.

Djoković has won the French Open once before (2016), but never when Nadal attended the event. The Serb also has four grand finals appearances in France – three of which ended in a loss to Nadal.

  • Dominic Thiem (+400)

We talked about how Nadal’s loss in Madrid will benefit some players – Dominic Thiem is one of them. Since Nadal is (highly likely) traveling to France as third-seed, this means Thiem will have the luxury of avoiding the Spaniard at least until the finals.

These two last met in the French Open finals in 2019, when Nadal won 6-3, 4-7, 6-1, and 6-1. Results like that should make anyone doubtful about Thiem’s chances to shine, but at +400, he’s worth a shot. Alternatively, Thiem to reach the finals isn’t a bad bet either.

Prediction: Thiem to win French Open

Prediction: Thiem to reach the finals


  • Stefanos Tsitsipas (+800)

Stefanos Tsitsipas is 10-2 on clay in 2021, with his only two losses coming against Nadal in Barcelona and most recently against Casper Ruud in Madrid. What’s more, the 22-year-old has a title from Monte Carlo Masters under his belt and has reached the semi-finals in France last year.

The Greek is in excellent form and looks poised to make some noise next month. With some luck, he could repeat his success from 2020, but at the offered price, this is a pass for me.

  • Daniil Medvedev (+1800)

Daniil Medvedev is an excellent player, but clay is not his strong suit. In Madrid, he crashed out very early, after a 1-2 loss against Christian Garin. On a more positive note, he has made it to the quarter-finals in Miami in April.

Those looking to bet on Medvedev to win the French Open should be reminded that the Russian has never made it out of the first round in four appearances. He’s a good player but not an appealing pick to win the French Open.

A Darkhorse Pick That Could Upset the Order

  • Diego Schwartzman (+2500)

It’s hard not to like Diego Schwartzman as a darkhorse pick to make some noise in France. He has a title from Buenos Aires, has made it to the quarters in Barcelona, but was unfortunate enough to face the eventual semi-finalists, Casper Ruud, in Monte-Carlo.

Although Schwartzman has had a few slip-ups of late, he has proven before that he is comfortable on clay. The German reached the semi-finals in France last year, and it’s not too unlikely he might do it again in June.

Prediction: Diego Schwartzman to reach the quarter-finals