Rio 2016 Men’s Basketball Semifinals Betting Predictions

Posted by Peter Boysen on August 18, 2016 in

Did the gymnastics or boxing results foil your summer Olympics betting chances? Never fear — the men’s basketball semifinals are upon us, and you can use our tips to help get your betting balance back in the black. Take a look at our predictions for each of the two matchups that set up the medal contests.

Rio 2016 Men’s Basketball Semifinals Betting Predictions

USA vs Spain (2:30pm ET, NBC Sports Network)

Odds: USA (-15.5), O/U 187.5

 

The United States and Spain have made meeting in the Olympics a tradition. After all, in 2008 and 2012, the two squads met for the gold medal, and now they meet for the right to play for gold against the winner of Serbia and Australia. The Americans routed Argentina in the quarterfinals after some iffy play to round out the group stage, but they seem to have the right pieces in place. The Spaniards are also peaking after drubbing France in the quarterfinals. They did open the tournament with losses to Brazil and Croatia but have won four games by an average margin of 30 points.

 

 

The United States must contain Nikola Mirotic and Pau Gasol — who has been shooting 56.3 percent from behind the international three-point arc. Mirotic played his best ball of these Olympics against France, dropping 23 points on the opposition. Both teams are shooting 55 percent from the floor inside the arc and 38 percent from downtown. Team USA pulls down 42.8 boards per game, while Spain averages 39.2. These are two offensive juggernauts, and that line could turn out to be a bit large if Gasol starts getting hot from behind the arc, but I do think I would take the over in this game. I’m predicting a 122-107 win for the United States.

 

Serbia vs Australia (6pm ET, NBC Sports Network / Telemundo)

Odds: Australia (-4), O/U 164.5

 

When either one of these teams picks up a medal in the 2016 Olympics, that medal will be a surprise, as both teams were picked to bow out much earlier. The winner of this tilt will head to the gold-medal game, while the loser will still have a chance to pick up the bronze. The Aussies have more NBA players on their roster, but the Serbs have played plucky ball all tournament. They pushed Team USA harder than any other opposition in group play, and they beat a favored Croatian squad by three in the quarterfinals.

The Australians are led by guard Patty Mills, who pointed them toward a 90-64 rout of Lithuania in the quarterfinals. Bogdan Bogdanovic and Miroslav Radujlica have also hit the top 15 in shooting percentage and scoring in the Olympics. Their bench will have to bring their “A” game in this one. The teams did meet in pool play, and the Australians won by 15. I like the Aussies to keep their momentum going, so I’m predicting a 92-84 win for the men from down under.