Why Bet on the Patriots to Beat the Chiefs

Posted by Aaron . on January 15, 2016 in

A lot of people are high on the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC divisional round playoffs, since they are riding an 11-game winning streak into Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots. However, when that game kicks off on CBS at 4:35 Eastern time on Saturday, the Chiefs will be taking on one of the most successful postseason teams ever — and particularly in the modern era. Here are some reasons why you should bet on the Patriots to come out on top of the Chiefs and a quick NFL betting analysis on this game.

Are the Patriots finally at full strength?

The majority of the season has seen a number of Patriots either out of action due to injury or limited in their ability on the field. This week, though, just about all of the players on their 53-man roster should be ready to go, at or near 100%. This means that Tom Brady should finally have some more flexibility on offense. The Chiefs, though, could be missing wide receiver Jeremy Maclin, who led the team with 87 receptions during the season, as he left the Chiefs’ Saturday wild card victory over Houston with a knee problem.

The Patriots don’t turn the ball over.

It’s true that Kansas City was a takeaway machine this year. In the regular season, they had a +14 turnover differential, with 29 takeaways and just 15 giveaways, which makes a big difference in their win-loss totals. However, while the Texans turned the ball over six times in the wild card game, New England won’t do that — after all, they only turned the ball over 14 times all season, best in the NFL. The Chiefs will not have nearly as many as gifts as they did against the Houston Texans.

Patriots Betting Odds 2015 NFL Season

Revenge is a dish best served cold.

These teams last met in September 2014, and the Chiefs routed New England 41-14, leading to questions about the future of QB Tom Brady — and motivating a huge run by the Patriots that ended up seeing them win the Lombardi Trophy. It’s true that the Chiefs and Patriots don’t have any bad blood between them, as the Chiefs were fairly polite after the rout, but it would be fair to guess that there are Patriot players who want to settle that score from that humiliating Monday Night Football reverse.

The Patriots don’t lose at home in the postseason.

No team is unbeatable, but the Patriots are close to that when playing at their home stadium. One formula for success that has worked so well in New England is to win that division, get that bye, and play at home. It’s true that the Philadelphia Eagles won in New England this year, but that was an aberration from a near-perfect record in Foxboro.