The Best NFL Week 4 Free Betting Picks

Posted by Daniel Saenz on July 21, 2016 in

The fourth week in the NFL regular season is often a tipping point. You’re getting close to the trade deadline (although you almost never see any blockbuster in-season trades in the NFL), and this year we’ll be in the last week of the Tom Brady suspension (and in the suspension of a lot of first-time substance-abuse policy offenders). Here are some lines that I think are a little off kilter, and you can help yourself out by taking advantage of these NFL Week 4 free picks that may reflect a mistaken NFL betting public. Home teams are in all caps.

Here Are The Best NFL Week 4 Free Betting Picks

Cleveland (+7.5) over WASHINGTON

I might be just about the only betting writer going this way on the pick, but that’s fine with me. If you don’t think RGIII, now the Cleveland Browns starting quarterback, has this circled on his calendar, you are insane. The owner (Daniel Snyder) who ordered him kept on the field until his knee blew up in his first (and only) postseason appearance is still there, and Griffin has to want payback. Add to this the surprisingly solid Browns defense, and this line looks awfully large to me. Yes, Kirk Cousins is a decent quarterback, but the Browns have a good pass rush and an above-average secondary. I definitely like the Browns to cover here.

Seattle (-2) over N.Y. JETS

I think the New York Jets are going to make some real noise in the AFC East this year. However, I also see the Seahawks putting last year’s early malaise behind them and making a real run to take back the NFC West title. The Legion of Boom will be ready to descend on Geno Smith and the rest of the Jet offense, and Russell Wilson has the talent around him to move the ball on the Jets. If you doubt this, consider what almost happened in the second half of the NFC divisional round game when they just about came back from a four-touchdown deficit to stun the Carolina Panthers on the road. I like the Seahawks to win and cover.

CHICAGO (-1.5) over Detroit

This line could be five or six points, and I’d still take the Bears. Why? Because John Fox is in Year Two at the helm with this team, and the defense will be all over Matthew Stafford, who only has one decent receiving option now in Golden Tate. Jay Cutler showed last year that he may finally have kicked the habit of those deflating fourth quarter interceptions, which means that the Bears are set to become a clutch team. I see Detroit sinking to the NFC North cellar this season.

MINNESOTA (-6) over N.Y. Giants (Monday Night Football)

The Giants didn’t make any meaningful personnel moves in the off-season, and they had a defense that was simply porous last year, particularly against the pass. Teddy Bridgewater showed last year that he has a terrific arm, which means that the Vikings now have a two-dimensional offense and a solid defense for the first time in…decades? Anyway, I don’t see the G-men making this close at all.