NFL Week 12 ATS Betting Picks

With three games on Thanksgiving Day instead of the usual one Thursday affair, this NFL betting week starts earlier than most. Detroit and Minnesota could take another step in leaving Green Bay behind in the NFC North, while the Houston Texans could advance toward another unlikely AFC South title. Let’s take a look at some of your best ATS picks in pro football this weekend. As always, home teams are in all caps.

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Pittsburgh (-8.5) over INDIANAPOLIS (Thursday, 8:30pm ET)

This line was sitting around three points in the Steelers’ favor until the Colts reported that quarterback Andrew Luck is unlikely to take the field, as he suffered a concussion and has not made the necessary progress through the protocol. While the Steelers only have the #26 passing defense in the NFL, I don’t see Scott Tolzien marching the Colts up and down the field faster than Ben Roethlisberger can dissect an also suspect Colts defense. I like the Steelers to win big here as long as Luck does not step onto the field.

BALTIMORE (-4) over Cincinnati (Sunday, 1:00pm ET)

The Baltimore Ravens did a better job bottling up Dallas’ Ezekiel Elliott than any other defense has this year — which makes sense, given that they have the #1 rushing defense in the NFL. When Cincinnati has to rely heavily on Andy Dalton and the passing game, bad things tend to happen, which means that an opportunistic Baltimore defense should be able to pull away a turnover or two. Given how lackluster the Bengals have played the past few weeks, I see Baltimore winning this one.

Seattle (-5.5) over TAMPA BAY (Sunday, 4:05pm ET)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers did come out of Kansas City with an unlikely win on Sunday, but the Seattle Seahawks are showing an impressive level of defense that they did not show in the first half of the season and that the Chiefs have not shown all season. So when the Legion of Boom shows up in Tampa Bay, I foresee very little in the way of passing lanes for Jameis Winston. Given that Russell Wilson has amped up his stats (as his ankle has improved) over the past three weeks, his athleticism will give the Bucs a challenge that Alex Smith did not last week.

OAKLAND (-3) over Carolina (Sunday, 4:25pm ET)

After delivering an impressive comeback win against a stingy Houston defense down in Mexico City on Monday night, the Oakland Raiders continue to wow observers, many of whom are starting to like them as a challenger to New England for supremacy in the AFC. The passing duo of Derek Carr and Amari Cooper continues to improve with each passing week, and Khalil Mack leads a ferocious Raider pass rush that will give Cam Newton all he wants. I like the Raiders to keep that winning streak going at home.