Denver Lands on Chicago For Week 11 NFL Betting Grudge
The coming game between Broncos and Bears presents an interesting NFL betting opportunity. In their last 13 games after a loss, the Denver Broncos have gone 12-1 straight up and 10-3 against the spread. However, this time they enter that post-loss game on the road against a surprisingly resilient Chicago Bears team, with Brock Osweiler at the helm instead of Peyton Manning. The Broncos opened as three-point favorites, and the over-under total sat at 43. Is it likely that the Broncos can win?
NFL Betting Line: Broncos -1
Well, here’s a case for Denver. They did start 7-0, with impressive wins over Green Bay and Minnesota as a part of that start. The shakiest win in that group was a miraculous victory in Kansas City, when the Broncos returned a late fumble to secure a victory. However, the Broncos got whipped last week, 29-13, by those same Chiefs – in Denver. Manning was simply awful, throwing four picks while hobbling around on what turned out to be torn plantar fascia, and Osweiler had to come in the game.
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) November 20, 2015
He didn’t do all that badly, going 14 for 24 and 146 yards with a score, although you could argue that the game was in garbage time that day. However, the Bronco defense wasn’t that bad, only permitting 303 total yards (80 on one late play). Five Bronco turnovers gave the Chiefs a lot of short fields, but the Broncos held them to five field goals – in a game that linebacker DeMarcus Ware ended up missing. So don’t worry about that Bronco “D” – instead, they need to restart what has been a stumbling running game to help Osweiler have a decent day. The Bears rank #26 against the run, so this might be a good week to do that.
However, here’s a case for the Bears. They are 4-5, but they are 4-2 after a bad 0-3 start. Last week, the Bears routed the St. Louis Rams on the road, 37-13. The Rams went up 7-0 on the first drive, and then the Bears rolled the whole rest of the way. They gained 397 yards to the Rams’ 285 (80 on that opening drive). Jay Cutler has stopped his career habit of the late, crippling interception, as he only threw three touchdowns against St. Louis. Tailback Jeremy Langford, playing for the injured Matt Forte, got 182 all-purpose yards from scrimmage and had two touchdowns. The only two losses that the Bears have suffered in their past six contests have been by three points. It looks like John Fox is molding the Bears into his image.
Broncos vs Bears Odds Trends
- Denver is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
- Denver is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
- Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver’s last 6 games on the road
- Denver is 1-5-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Chicago
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver’s last 6 games when playing Chicago
- Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
- Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
- Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
- Chicago is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago’s last 7 games
- Chicago is 5-16-1 ATS in its last 22 games at home
- Chicago is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chicago’s last 10 games at home
- Chicago is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago’s last 6 games when playing Denver
- Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
Game Prediction: Based on the last games played by both squads and the performance they have exhibited, I think that the Bears will win over this hobbling Broncos team. It won’t be a rout, but I don’t see the Broncos giving a resurgent Bears team the fight that it will take to win this road game.