Week 11 NFL ATS Picks

Posted by Peter Boysen on November 16, 2016 in

If the NFL’s regular season ended today, Oakland would make the playoffs, but Pittsburgh would not. The New York Giants and the Washington Redskins would make the playoffs (making two wild cards from the NFC East) but the Green Bay Packers, the Arizona Cardinals and the Minnesota Vikings (all playoff participants a year ago) would not. A lot of change has hit the NFL this season, and bettors must pay attention to the news each and every week. Let’s take a look at our NFL betting picks against the spread for Week 11. Home teams are in all caps, as always.

Week 11 NFL ATS Picks

Sunday, 1:00pm ET: Pittsburgh (-8) over CLEVELAND

The Cleveland Browns actually have a lot of good things going for them. They have an exciting young quarterback in Cody Kessler. They have a decent running back in Isaiah Crowell. Wide receivers are fast and talented. So they can move the ball — in spurts. The problems come on defense, because tight ends exploit the vast holes in the middle of the zone defense, and the linebackers and secondary lack speed. You don’t get to 0-10 by accident, and the Browns have earned every loss. I think that they will break through against someone, but it won’t be the Pittsburgh Steelers, who let a win slip away late against Dallas this past Sunday and will be ready to deliver some major punishment to the hapless Clevelands.

Sunday, 1:00pm ET: DETROIT (-6.5) over Jacksonville

If you look at what national sportswriters have to say about the NFC North, you read a lot about the collapse of the Minnesota Vikings (who knew that you needed NFL talent at wide receiver and tailback?) and the Green Bay Packers (Aaron Rodgers has had a terrific eight-year run, but no one lasts forever). What we haven’t seen much about is the terrific offense that is taking shape with the Detroit Lions after the departure of Calvin Johnson. The Lions will host a Jacksonville team that plays well in spurts but let an iffy Texans offense post 24 points at home last week. I see the Lions winning and covering this spread.

Sunday, 1:00pm ET: Arizona (PK) over MINNESOTA

I know what you’re thinking here — the Cardinals almost lost to San Francisco last week — AT HOME. But the 49ers arguably have more offensive talent than the Vikings at this point. The Vikings come off their bye, but they’ve already fired their offensive coordinator, the great Norv Turner, despite the fact that quarterback Sam Bradford (a) just joined the team before the start of the season and (b) does not have NFL-level talent to hand the ball or throw the ball to, so I expect things to be grim for them. Look for the Cardinals to control the Viking offense and win in a slugfest.