Updated Super Bowl 50 Money Line

Posted by Aaron . on February 6, 2016 in

Thanks to all of the frenzied betting that has gone on during the two weeks leading up to Super Bowl 50, the moneyline has moved around a bit. The latest moneyline for the Super Bowl features the Carolina Panthers as the favorites (-225), and the Broncos are the underdogs (+195).

The irony is that both of these teams have been accustomed to the underdog role as the season has gone by. If you looked at Super Bowl odds before the 2015 regular season began, you could have found online sports books offering as high as +5000 for a moneyline on the Panthers winning the Super Bowl — and in a couple of days, you might well find yourself wishing you’d taken that bet back then. When the Denver Broncos entered the AFC Championship — as the #1 seed in the AFC playoffs, no less — they were the underdogs as well. Now these two underestimated teams find themselves on the biggest stage, in the golden anniversary year of the Super Bowl, the most watched (and most betted) sporting event in the world.

Updated Super Bowl 50 Money Line

Why Is the Moneyline Where It Is?

There is the sense that the Panthers are much better opponents for the Broncos that either their divisional round opponents (Pittsburgh) or their AFC Championship opponents (New England). Pittsburgh entered that playoff game with a quarterback who couldn’t throw the ball much farther than the 10 yards he needed to gain first downs, thanks to that shoulder injury from the wild card game. Then came the Patriots, but they don’t have a running game. They do have one of the most gifted passers in the history of the NFL, in Tom Brady, but the Bronco defense just had to tee off on pass rush, pretty much ignoring the tailbacks in the Patriot offense. In large part, this worked, as Tom Brady got knocked down 20 times and got harassed into throwing a bunch of bad incompletions and three interceptions.

Carolina, though, has both a rushing and passing game — in fact, they have both of them in the same player, in Cam Newton. Opposing defenses don’t want to see him rumbling toward him with the ball — but they also don’t want him to fake them out and hand the ball to Jonathan Stewart in the read option. If he drops back to pass and they contain him, he also has the arm to gun the ball down the field — and an accuracy that he did not seem to possess before this year.

And then there’s that Carolina defense. You’ve already read about those 39 takeaways they had in the regular season (and the nine they had in the first two rounds of the playoffs). They are fearsome on both sides of the ball in ways that (especially) Pittsburgh and New England weren’t. There’s also the sense that the Denver offense simply won’t be able to keep up — and that’s why Carolina is the favorite here.