Updated Super Bowl 50 Odds

Posted by Aaron . on February 6, 2016 in

Now that the last week before Super Bowl 50 is coming to a close, the latest odds show the Carolina Panthers favored to knock off the Denver Broncos by 5.5 points. The Panthers are appearing in their second Super Bowl as a franchise, and this would be the team’s first Lombardi Trophy. The Broncos are appearing in their eighth Super Bowl, and this would be their first third win. Peyton Manning would become the first quarterback in the history of the NFL to win a Super Bowl title with two different teams if the Broncos can pull off the victory. Let’s take a closer look at some of the movements that have gone on in our online sportsbook NFL betting page with this line.

Super Bowl 50 Updated Betting Preview and TV Information

When: Sunday, February 7, 2015
Kickoff: 6:30 PM ET
Where: Santa Clara, CA
Stadium: Levi’s Stadium
Spread: Panthers -5,5
Moneyline: Carolina -230 vs Denver +190
Game Total: 45.5
Watch: CBS
Stream: CBS Sports
Listen: Carolina vs Denver

Why are the Panthers favored to win?

There is a strong belief that the Broncos simply don’t have enough offense to overcome what the Panthers can bring to the table. This is not the same Broncos team that racked up a league-record 606 points in the regular season back in 2013; that team went to Super Bowl XLVIII and was shellacked by the Seattle Seahawks, 43-8. This is a more balanced team, thanks to an ironclad defense, but it is a team that has struggled on offense against elite competition. The Broncos scored 17 points in the first half of their AFC Championship win over the New England Patriots, but then they could only add 3 more in the second half, as the Patriots’ defense stiffened and the Broncos became a little more conservative with the lead. The Patriots do not have the same defensive bona fides that the Panthers gathered over the course of the season. As a result, most bettors view the Panthers as having the stronger team on the field, despite the Broncos’ strong defense.

Why aren’t the Panthers favored to win by more?

The line on this game crept as high as 6.5 or 7 points throughout the past week. However, as the line went higher, enough bettors remembered that the Broncos shut down the Patriots not once but twice this year — once with a backup quarterback at the reigns — to shift the action when the line got that high and push the line back down. The Broncos have a front four that can both contain Cam Newton and provide pressure on the pass rush. If they can keep the Panthers from moving the ball without a max protect scheme, the Panthers could see their offense stagnate. After all, if the Broncos only have to rush four or five men to get pressure on Newton, that leaves six or seven back to spy on the read option and provide pass coverage. A max protection scheme keeps seven men in to block for the quarterback, leaving only three people going out for the pass. That could lead to coverage sacks by the busload. This scenario is why a lot of people don’t think that this will be a blowout.

My take on this game is that the Panthers are simply too strong for the Broncos, on both sides of the ball. I don’t think that this will be a blowout along the lines of the NFC Championship, but I think that the Panthers will cover this line fairly easily and win, 31-17.