Updated Super Bowl 50 Game Total Pick

Posted by Aaron . on February 2, 2016 in

As of Tuesday morning, the point spread for Super Bowl 50 remains the Carolina Panthers (-6) over the Denver Broncos. The NFL’s golden title game kicks off Sunday, February 7, at 6:30pm Eastern from Levi’s Stadium, the home field of the San Francisco 49ers. There hasn’t been a significant movement in the line for the past couple of days, as the betting appears to have stabilized for now.

So which side should you pick? Let’s take a look at what Madden NFL 16 has to say about it. The venerable video game simulation sees Carolina going into the fourth quarter up 17-0 on the Denver Broncos, before Peyton Manning leads the team on a spirited charge to go up 20-17. The Broncos are up until the final play of the game, when Panthers quarterback Cam Newton will carry the ball into the end zone to give Carolina its first world championship.

Super Bowl 50 Game Odds and TV Info

When: Sunday, February 7, 2015
Kickoff: 6:30 PM ET
Where: Santa Clara, CA
Stadium: Levi’s Stadium
Spread: Panthers -6
Moneyline: Carolina -245 vs Denver +205
Game Total: 45.5
Watch: CBS
Stream: CBS Sports 
Listen: Carolina vs Denver

Where To Put Your Money when Betting On SB50 Betting Total

If this sounds somewhat farfetched, when Madden NFL 15 simulated Super Bowl XLIX, it came up with the same score of the game itself (New England 28, Seattle 24) and even simulated the game’s last touchdown correctly (a pass from Tom Brady to Julian Edelman). As far as the receiving and passing yardage totals for Brady and Edelman, the game almost predicted those exactly.

Madden NFL 16 also projects Cam Newton to be the MVP of Super Bowl 50, throwing for a touchdown and 216 yards. Even though Peyton Manning is projected to throw for two scores and 241 yards, the game-winning touchdown run is what will send Newton over the top.

EA Sports has run a simulation like this each year since Super Bowl XXXVIII, and of the 12 simulations, the game has picked the winner correctly nine times. The video game has gone 8-4 against the spread and has been on the right side of the over/under four years in a row.

So what does this mean for you? With a six-point line, you should take the Broncos, if you go by the video game simulation. With an over/under total sitting at 45.5 points, you should take the under (since the total is 44 in the simulation).

So how does the simulation work? A computer controls both teams in one game that goes on Pro difficulty. However, the predictions have actually been pretty close to what actually happens over time, and it’s hard to do any better than they did last year. Some of the more surprising picks in the past that turned out right were the 2010 Super Bowl win for New Orleans (a five-point underdog to the Colts) and the 2013 win for the Baltimore Ravens (a 4.5-point underdog to San Francisco).

Madden NFL 16 isn’t the only video game that has been used to run a simulation of Super Bowl 50. A mod of Tecmo Super Bowl also has the Panthers winning, by the score of 17-7. So they also have the game going under the point total — but the Panthers covering.