Super Bowl LI Over/Under Betting Pick

Posted by Peter Boysen on January 27, 2017 in

The 59-point total with which the bookmakers judged the upcoming matchup in Super Bowl LI is the largest over/under number in the history of the NFL’s title game. Only 9 of the 50 Super Bowls have featured 59 or more total points — the record is 75, back in 1995, when the San Francisco 49ers routed the San Diego Chargers, 49-26. The lowest total is 21, way back in 1973, when the Miami Dolphins edged the Washington Redskins, 14-7, to complete their perfect season — and that total could easily have been just 14, had Miami kicker Garo Yepremian not tried to throw a pass after an errant field goal snap, and the Redskins returned the interception for a touchdown to bring the score to 14-7 in the waning minutes. Will the Falcons and Patriots produce the 10th Super Bowl with 59 or more points, or will the offenses fail to meet the hype? Let’s take a look at this Super Bowl LI betting preview.

Super Bowl LI Over/Under Betting Pick

Why should you take the over?

Atlanta posted 540 points during the regular season, seventh-most in NFL history. That’s an average of almost 34 points per game. In the playoffs, they have averaged 40 points per game. In the NFC Championship, they routed Green bay 44-21, going over the over/under total for that game — which was 61. New England beat Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship game, 36-17. The over/under total for that game was 49.5 points, so the AFC title game went over as well. The Patriots came in third in the NFL in points scored for the season — and the Falcons gave up 25 points per game in the regular season, sixth most in the NFL. So if you look at these early signs, you have two teams that can easy break 30 or 40 points in a game. Atlanta has three different receiving threats in Taylor Gabriel, Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu, and they have both Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman at tailback.

Why should you take the under?

No team allowed fewer points during the regular season than New England did — 15.6 points per game. The Patriots also have a way of neutralizing the offensive strength of the opposition. They came out in the AFC Championship with a game plan of keeping the holes in the defensive line from opening — Steelers tailback Le’Veon Bell is known for hesitating, waiting for holes to open, and then darting through. Bell went down with an injury after just six carries, but without a rushing game the Steelers struggled against New England. The Falcons do have a wealth of options that will make this difficult for New England, but if you like the Patriots to out-prepare the Patriots, you might consider the under.