Week 7 NFL Betting Preview: Saints vs Colts

Posted by Aaron . on October 20, 2015 in

New Orleans heads on the road to play the Indianapolis Colts this coming week, and the Colts are favored to win by 5 ½ points. This is a game between two teams that have been star-crossed so far this season. The Saints have failed to live up to their preseason expectations for the most part, with only two wins. One of those wins came in Week 4 against a Dallas Cowboys team led by backup quarterback Brandon Weeden – and the Saints needed overtime to claim the win.

Saints vs Colts Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, October 25, 1:00 PM
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
Opening NFL Betting Line: Colts  -4½-110
TV: Fox

Their second win came this past Thursday night, as the Saints shocked the then-unbeaten Atlanta Falcons in the Superdome, winning 31-21. Drew Brees is still fighting off the effects of a sore shoulder, but the Saints did look good enough to beat anyone in the NFL during that victory.

Andy Luck

The Colts, on the other hand, have had a bizarre season, to say the least. Andrew Luck went down to injury, only to have backup Matt Hasselbeck lead the team to two consecutive victories in relief. Then came their Sunday night tilt against the Patriots, and the Colts were actually playing with New England until a fake punt that was beyond weird, as a grotesque form of the swinging gate led to double infamy: the play was swarmed almost right away, and the Colts were called for running an illegal formation anyway, as they didn’t have enough people on the line of scrimmage.

To predict a game like this, it can help to look at the numbers, at least sometimes. The Saints have a 14-7 record the week after home games in prime time with Sean Payton as the head coach and Drew Brees as the quarterback. The Colts are favored by 5 ½, but this is a team that is primed to go down in flames once again.

I look for Drew Brees to continue his inspired play in Indianapolis. I also look for the Colts to continue to struggle. They have been gamers the past three weeks or so, but they don’t have what it takes to salt away a good team. The Saints come into town on a bit of a roll, having won two of three and really having found a way to put together the offensive and defensive phases of the game.

New Orleans Saints

Betting Trends

  • New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
  • New Orleans is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games on the road
  • The total has gone OVER in 8 of New Orleans’s last 11 games on the road
  • New Orleans is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Indianapolis
  • Indianapolis is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
  • Indianapolis is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Indianapolis’s last 13 games
  • Indianapolis is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 games at home

An interesting proposition for this game is the over/under, which is set at 52 ½. The Saints combined with the Falcons for 52 points last week (31-21). However, the Falcons have had more firepower on offense than the Colts have shown so far throughout most of the season. I don’t see the Saints scoring 31 again on the road, but I also don’t see their defense giving up much either. I would take the under on this point total, expecting more of a defensive struggle. This could be more of a battle of attrition than a real show of defensive skill. The over/under might be a safer pick in this game than picking one team with that 5 ½ point line, too.