Really Early Odds to Win Super Bowl 51

Posted by Aaron . on February 8, 2016 in

The world champion Denver Broncos, disrespected by the oddsmakers throughout their playoff run, find themselves on the outside looking in on the newest online sportsbook betting odds for the winners of Super Bowl LI, set to take place on February 5, 2017, in Houston, Texas at NRG Stadium. It’s likely that the team will have a new quarterback, as Peyton Manning is likely to retire, but it was the defense that carried this team through the postseason. Even so, the earliest odds on a repeat performance are 14/1.

So Who are the Betting Favorites To Win SB 51?

New England, Pittsburgh and Seattle all sit at 8/1. Then come Carolina, Arizona and Green Bay, all at 10/1. Cincinnati and Denver roll in at 14/1. Who has the longest odds? The Cleveland Browns are the only triple-digit team on the board, listed at 200/1. The second highest odds belong to the San Francisco 49ers (60/1). Let’s look at the rest of the board:

  • Dallas 16/1
  • Minnesota, Indianapolis, Kansas City 20/1
  • New York Jets, Buffalo, Baltimore 30/1
  • Atlanta, Houston, New York Giants, Washington, Chicago, Detroit, New Orleans 40/1
  • Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, LA, Miami, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Oakland, San Diego 50/1

So which picks do I think our improperly valued?

  • Let’s start with Pittsburgh and Seattle at 8/1. It’s far from certain that an aging Ben Roethlisberger returns from two ligament tears in his throwing shoulder at full strength. Also, the Seahawks will lose “Beast Mode” running back Marshawn Lynch to retirement. While they did quite well without him, it’s important to remember that they were a short field goal away from losing in the wild card round. So I think those teams should have higher odds.
  • What about the Cincinnati Bengals? At 14/1, I think they should have higher odds too. I don’t see them winning the AFC North again, because I think the Ravens will retool and improve. We need to see how Andy Dalton’s wrist recovers. There’s also the fact that they need to develop some mental toughness on the defensive side of the ball, because that unit turned a strong day into a nightmare loss simply because they couldn’t control themselves.
  • What about the Falcons, though, at 40/1? This is a team that started 5-0 before falling off the table, but then reasserting themselves late. Dan Quinn was in his first year as a head coach in the NFL, and it looked like he managed to put things back together — it just took a little too long for the team to make the playoffs. I might put some small money down on them.
  • What about the Oakland Raiders, at 50/1? I’m projecting them as a playoff team this year, as Derek Carr and Amari Cooper improve their synergy even more and Jack Del Rio gets that defensive unit playing more effectively. That is a team that could vault past the Chiefs and challenge the Broncos for the AFC West title.
  • How about Tampa Bay, at 50/1? If Cam Newton implodes and the Panthers are in a funk next year (and the Falcons are still tooling around) that is a division that the Buccaneers could shock — and win.