The Dolphins have been pretty bad this year.

Patriots vs Dolphins NFL Betting Lines & Overview

Written by on December 29, 2015

The New England Patriots head down south from the snowy Northeast to take on the Miami Dolphins in the regular season finale at Sun Life Stadium on Sunday at 1:00pm Eastern time. The Patriots just were upset by the New York Jets, 26-20, while the Dolphins lost an ugly 18-12 game to the Indianapolis Colts. The Patriots can lock up the top seed in the AFC playoffs with a win, guaranteeing them home field throughout the playoffs. The Dolphins are playing out the string for interim coach Dan Campbell, winning just once in their last six contests. The Pats are favored by eight points, with an over/under total of 45 points. Click here for NFL betting lines. Watch Online Here

Why should you pick the Patriots (-8)?

The Dolphins have been pretty bad this year, but they have been simply awful when it comes to covering the point spread. In their last nine games, they are only 1-8 against the spread and have not covered since Week 10. Last week, quarterback Ryan Tannehill took a beating from the Indianapolis Colts, who sacked him nine times and injured his leg. Look for the Patriots to dial up all sorts of pass rushing options to harass Tannehill all game long. Given the problems that the Patriots have had in Miami, this is a fairly high spread.

Why should you pick the Dolphins (+8)?

Given the problems that the Patriots have had in Miami, this is a fairly high spread. The Patriots are also still quite porous on their offensive line and are still missing Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola. The Pats could struggle to put points on the board in bunches, which means this could stay close from start to finish. It was telling that Bill Belichick had more faith in the possibility of his defense holding New York to a field goal to start overtime last week than he did in his offense driving down the field for a touchdown when he chose to kick at the start of overtime last week.

Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction

I think the Patriots will win and secure that top seed, but I also think they will have a hard time covering against a Dolphins team that likes to rattle New England’s cage. My prediction is a 23-17 win for the visiting Patriots — so I like the Dolphins to cover here.