NFL Odds on First Coach to Be Fired

Posted by Peter Boysen on August 12, 2016 in

It might sound a little morbid, but one of the realities of life as an NFL head coach is that the clock is always ticking on your tenure. Wins and losses make the difference between full stadiums (and lots of profits) and teams having to offer ticket discounts just to get people in the seats. There’s also no such thing as a stagnant team — if you’re not going up, other teams are going to be passing you. Let’s take a look at the NFL odds on which coaches have the best odds on getting let go first.

NFL Odds on First Coach to Be Fired

Jim Caldwell, Detroit (+370)


He almost got fired three years ago, but then he took the Lions to the playoffs, where they gave the Dallas Cowboys a run for their money in the wild card game. Last year, the Lions won at Lambeau Field, but then lost at home to Green Bay when it looked like the coaching staff put in a boneheaded “Hail Mary” defense on the game’s final play. The Lions have an elite quarterback in Matthew Stafford and a solid wide receiver in Golden Tate. The defense needs some work, though, and if the Lions start sliding to the bottom of the NFC North standings, Caldwell could see the door.


Mike McCoy, San Diego (+385)


It’s not like the Chargers are going to show Phillip Rivers out early, so Mike McCoy might be the one to leave if the Raiders vault past the Chargers out of the AFC West cellar.


Jeff Fisher, Los Angeles (+700)


If the Rams were going to make a coaching change this season, you’d think they would do it before making the move, so I’m a little surprised here. Fisher also has a rookie quarterback in Jared Goff and a second-year tailback in Todd Gurley, so his offense will have a steep learning curve.



Gus Bradley, Jacksonville (+1100)


The Jaguars should make a real jump this year. They signed tailback Chris Ivory from the Jets to give Blake Bortles some relief from the pass rush, and their defense was already solid last year. This is a team that could hop up to take the AFC South if the Colts and Texans falter at all. If they slide back down the standings, though, Bradley could be the one to leave first.


Jason Garrett, Dallas (+1100)


This says more about Jerry Jones’ reputation for making rash decisions than anything else, because the last time Garrett had a starting quarterback throughout the season, the Cowboys won the NFC East and made it to the divisional round of the playoffs before losing a heartbreaker in Green Bay. Last year’s 4-12 dumpster fire saw Tony Romo on the bench with a broken collarbone most of the year. But if the Cowboys don’t come out on fire, you could hear calls for Garrett’s head.


Here’s a look at the rest of the odds:


Chip Kelly, San Francisco (+1500)


Bill O’Brien, Houston and Chuck Pagano, Indianapolis (+1750)


Sean Payton, New Orleans; Dirk Koetter, Tampa Bay; Mike Mularkey, Tennessee; Jay Gruden, Washington (+2000)


Jack Del Rio, Oakland; John Fox, Chicago; Rex Ryan, Buffalo; Doug Pederson, Philadelphia (+2500)


Adam Gase, Miami (+3000)


Hue Jackson, Cleveland (+3300)


Dan Quinn, Atlanta (+3500)


Todd Bowles, N.Y. Jets; John Harbaugh, Baltimore (+4000)


Ben McAdoo, N.Y. Giants (+4500)


Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati (+5000)


Mike Zimmer, Minnesota (+7500)


Gary Kubiak, Denver; Andy Reid, Kansas City; Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh; Ron Rivera, Carolina (+10000)


Mike McCarthy, Green Bay (+15000)


Pete Carroll, Seattle; Bill Belichick, New England; Bruce Arians, Arizona (+25000)