NFL Betting: 2021 New England Patriots Offense Analysis & Prediction

NFL Betting: 2021 New England Patriots Offense Analysis & Prediction

Written by on July 28, 2021

2020 was a down year for the New England Patriots, as they finished 7-9 and missed out on the playoffs. The team struggled on both ends, and the offense, in particular, was a problem for the Patriots. While 2020 had its downs, there’s a reason for optimism ahead of 2021. Let’s have a look at what lies ahead in 2021 for the New England Patriots and their offense so you can plan your bets against their NFL odds.

New England Patriots Offense In-Depth Betting Analysis

2020 Year in Review

Before we get to the Patriots’ 2021 season, a look at how they fared in 2020.

Football Outsiders ranked the New England offense 23rd in the league, while Pro Football Focus graded out the Patriots offense as 17th.

Cam Newton was the quarterback for New England, and he had a poor 2020 overall. Newton threw for 2,657 yards, eight touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. He was used far more as a rusher, helping to aid the Patriots running offense, which was graded out as eighth in the NFL in DVOA rankings.

Pro Football Focus also had a favorable outlook on the New England rushing attack, grading their run offense 10th and their run blocking sixth.

Beyond Newton, second-year running back Damien Harris emerged as an efficient runner, finishing the year 691 yards on 5.0 yards per carry.

It was the passing game that was the downfall for the New England offense.

Both Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders had the Patriots down as a bottom-ten passing offense, and it goes beyond Newton. Not many teams had less to work with at receiver than New England.

Jakobi Meyers, a relative unknown, led the team in receiving with 729 yards.

2021 Outlook

Based on New England’s offseason moves, their poor passing offense was top of mind as they went to work reconstructing the roster. Big contracts were handed out to two of the most dynamic tight ends in the NFL: Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith.

How New England gets both involved remains to be seen, but the expectation is plenty of two tight-end sets, similar to how they deployed Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.

The Patriots also brought in wide receiver Nelson Agholor from Las Vegas and signed young speedster Kendrick Bourne away from San Francisco.

At the quarterback position, it appears Newton will remain the starter, at least to start the season. New England drafted quarterback Mac Jones from Alabama in the first round, with plans to eventually install him as their new quarterback. When that move comes remains to be seen, but given the contract, they signed Cam Newton to, he should start the season for New England.

The depth chart on offense is much improved from 2020, though there remains a need at receiver. Damien Harris will split running back duties with Sony Michel and James White, while Nelson Agholor and Jakobi Meyers are expected to start. Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith figure to be a huge part of this New England offense in 2021, putting a strain on the defense’s ability to play their base units.

Thanks to the poor offense, New England was one of the worst teams against over/under in 2020, going just 5-11 against the total.

We should expect some lower lines in Patriots games until we better understand how this offense is going to look.