New England at Cleveland Week 5 Betting Pick & Prediction

Posted by Peter Boysen on October 6, 2016 in

Let’s face it — this isn’t a good week to play for the Cleveland Browns. You have an 0-4 record in which you have permitted three come-from-behind wins. Your starting quarterback for the year (RGIII) is out, and so is backup Josh McCown, so rookie Cody Kessler is in to run the offense. You have the New England Patriots coming to town, and they will have steam coming out their ears already for a couple of reasons: the Buffalo Bills shut them out at home last week, 16-0, for their first home shutout in 23 years; and Tom Brady returns from his four-game DeflateGate suspension to lead the Patriot attack. Check out all of our NFL lines for Week 5 action.

New England at Cleveland Week 5 Betting Pick, Prediction & TV Info

When: Sunday, October 9, 2016, 1:00pm ET
Where: First Energy Stadium, Cleveland
Radio: New England / Cleveland
Live Stream: NFL Live
NFL Odds: New England (-10), O/U 46.5

Why should you bet on the Browns?

If you’re betting on Cleveland, you like them at least to keep this loss in single digits. Given that the Browns will roll behind rookie Cody Kessler at quarterback, and given their struggles on defense, this is a tough argument to make. Kessler had decent numbers last week, going 28 for 40 for 223 yards with a touchdown and a pick. Tailback Isaiah Crowell picked up 112 yards on just fifteen attempts, giving him two 100-yard games on the season and making him the best offensive player on the roster. This explains their averaging just 18.8 points per game on the season.

The Browns have a decent defense, at least up front, but their secondary permitted three touchdowns last week to Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins. Cornerback Jamar Taylor has now picked off passes in two straight games, but the youth factor keeps pushing the Browns toward mistakes.

Why should you put your money on the Patriots?

Tom Brady returns to lift the fortunes of an offense that had just averaged 20.2 points per game with backup quarterbacks Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett leading the attack. Even so, the Patriots stood at 3-1, including a big upset of the Arizona Cardinals on the road in Week 1. So expect Rob Gronkowski to have a big week as one of Brady’s favorite targets, and expect that fragile Cleveland secondary to go through test after test as Brady throws the ball down the field. After all, he only has 12 games in which to match last year’s 4,770 yards, and the Browns have let opposing quarterbacks slice up their secondary all year long.

Don’t forget that Patriot defense, which has only permitted 15.2 points per game, good for fourth in the NFL. They held LeSean McCoy to just 70 rushing yards a week ago, and Logan Ryan led the way with 17 tackles. So on both sides of the ball, the Patriots should have a big day.

My Betting Pick and Final Score Prediction

I like the Browns to come out and put up an effort, but NEw England and Tom Brady will have things going at full blast on Sunday. I predict a final of New England 44, Cleveland 13.