NFL Betting Lines: Pats Favored by a TD for MNF Game vs Bills

Posted by Aaron . on November 23, 2015 in

Week 11 closes with a bang on Monday night when Pats and Bills face off in one of the hottest NFL betting opportunities of the week. The New England Patriots barely escaped their great white whale in the New York Giants last week, and this week they tangle with familiar enemy Rex Ryan as the Bills come to Boston for New England’s only Monday Night appearance this season. The Patriots still have a number of men on the injury list, but judging by the NFL betting lines on this game, the team has enough potential on the bench to pull this one at home.

Week 11 MNF Bills vs Patriots Game Preview and Betting Analysis

Date/Time: Monday, November 23rd, 8:30 PM
Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Game Odds: Patriots -7
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: WatchESPN

The fact that the team has lost tailback Dion Lewis and wide receiver Julian Edelman in consecutive games could well take its toll on the Patriots’ offense, which by the way, remains as the best in the league. The offensive line appears to be whole again, but it’s hard to function as an offense without your two biggest threats.

In Week 2, the Patriots racked up 40 points in Buffalo, rolling up 507 total yards. The Bills were able to roar back in the fourth quarter, falling 40-33. New England would love to do it again, but it will be harder without Lewis and Edelman in the starting lineup.

One key matchup will feature Stephon Gilmore and Ronald Darby – the Bills’ cornerback duo – against Brandon LaFell and Danny Amendola, the best remaining wide receivers on the Patriots’ roster. The Bills have had a difficult time rushing the passer, which makes the job that these corners have done this season remarkable. New England’s offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels will have to be creative to find ways to get these lower-tier receivers open against the Bills’ secondary.

Bills vs Patriots

Another crucial matchup is the fight that LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams will give the Pats’ front seven. Malcolm Brown has come into his own on the Pats’ defensive line, giving New England a five-man rotation on the defensive interior. They will need this against the Bills, which have two terrific running backs healthy. Between them, McCoy and Williams have missed a total of five games, but when they are healthy, they are among the league’s most efficient backs, combining for an average of 5.2 yards per attempt. The Bills ran for 160 yards and two scores in Week 2, but in the last four weeks, the Patriots have held their opponents to 3.5 yards or fewer per carry.

One player who did not appear in Week 2 for Buffalo is Leodis McKelvin, who has been an outside cornerback for a lot of his career, but he has returned from short-term injured reserve to play a hybrid cornerback-safety role, keying on the opponent’s tight end. Given the nightmare that Rob Gronkowski presents for other teams, McKelvin could play an important role in shutting down that threat, after Gronkowski rolled up 113 yards and a score on seven catches in Week 2.

Bills vs Pats Odds Trends
Buffalo Bills

The Patriots will have LeGarrette Blount on the field. He was out there in Week 2, but he only carried the ball twice (for four yards). Since the Bills’ rushing defense has shown a lot of problems, though, this could be a big week for Blount. He is a bruising back who can burst through holes in tentative defensive lines.

I like the Patriots to win this game. However, it won’t be as easy or high-scoring as Week 2. I look for them to grind out something along the lines of a 28-24 win.