NFL Betting Lines: Pats Favored by a TD for MNF Game vs Bills
Week 11 closes with a bang on Monday night when Pats and Bills face off in one of the hottest NFL betting opportunities of the week. The New England Patriots barely escaped their great white whale in the New York Giants last week, and this week they tangle with familiar enemy Rex Ryan as the Bills come to Boston for New England’s only Monday Night appearance this season. The Patriots still have a number of men on the injury list, but judging by the NFL betting lines on this game, the team has enough potential on the bench to pull this one at home.
Week 11 MNF Bills vs Patriots Game Preview and Betting Analysis
Game Odds: Patriots -7
Live Stream: WatchESPN
In Week 2, the Patriots racked up 40 points in Buffalo, rolling up 507 total yards. The Bills were able to roar back in the fourth quarter, falling 40-33. New England would love to do it again, but it will be harder without Lewis and Edelman in the starting lineup.
One key matchup will feature Stephon Gilmore and Ronald Darby – the Bills’ cornerback duo – against Brandon LaFell and Danny Amendola, the best remaining wide receivers on the Patriots’ roster. The Bills have had a difficult time rushing the passer, which makes the job that these corners have done this season remarkable. New England’s offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels will have to be creative to find ways to get these lower-tier receivers open against the Bills’ secondary.
Another crucial matchup is the fight that LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams will give the Pats’ front seven. Malcolm Brown has come into his own on the Pats’ defensive line, giving New England a five-man rotation on the defensive interior. They will need this against the Bills, which have two terrific running backs healthy. Between them, McCoy and Williams have missed a total of five games, but when they are healthy, they are among the league’s most efficient backs, combining for an average of 5.2 yards per attempt. The Bills ran for 160 yards and two scores in Week 2, but in the last four weeks, the Patriots have held their opponents to 3.5 yards or fewer per carry.
One player who did not appear in Week 2 for Buffalo is Leodis McKelvin, who has been an outside cornerback for a lot of his career, but he has returned from short-term injured reserve to play a hybrid cornerback-safety role, keying on the opponent’s tight end. Given the nightmare that Rob Gronkowski presents for other teams, McKelvin could play an important role in shutting down that threat, after Gronkowski rolled up 113 yards and a score on seven catches in Week 2.
- Buffalo is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Buffalo’s last 25 games
- Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
- Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
- The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Buffalo’s last 12 games on the road
- Buffalo is 6-11-1 ATS in its last 18 games when playing New England
- Buffalo is 2-22 SU in its last 24 games when playing New England
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of Buffalo’s last 9 games when playing New England
- Buffalo is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New England
- Buffalo is 1-13 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against New England
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo’s last 6 games when playing on the road against New England
- New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
- New England is 16-5-2 ATS in its last 23 games at home
- New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England’s last 6 games at home
- New England is 22-2 SU in its last 24 games when playing Buffalo
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England’s last 9 games when playing Buffalo
- New England is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Buffalo
- New England is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against Buffalo
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England’s last 6 games when playing at home against Buffalo
The Patriots will have LeGarrette Blount on the field. He was out there in Week 2, but he only carried the ball twice (for four yards). Since the Bills’ rushing defense has shown a lot of problems, though, this could be a big week for Blount. He is a bruising back who can burst through holes in tentative defensive lines.
I like the Patriots to win this game. However, it won’t be as easy or high-scoring as Week 2. I look for them to grind out something along the lines of a 28-24 win.