NFL Betting: Kansas City Chiefs 2021 Offense Analysis

Posted by Bobby Chacon on July 7, 2021 in

Heading into training camp, the Kansas City Chiefs are +450 favorites to win Super Bowl 56. Kansas City is such a big favorite to win the AFC that the next closest AFC team, the Buffalo Bills, are at +1200 odds to win the Super Bowl. Kansas City is talented, no doubt, but are they worth backing this season against the spread? Check out an analysis of Kansas City’s offense and how that may affect betting odds on the NFL’s favorite to win the Vince Lombardi Trophy.  Let’s get right to it so you can plan accordingly and make your bets against their NFL odds.

NFL Kansas City Chiefs Offense In-Depth Betting Analysis

2021 NFL Season

  • When: Sep. 9, 2021 – Jan. 9, 2022

Kansas City’s Offense – An In-Depth Look

Most feel Patrick Mahomes is the NFL’s best quarterback. In 2020, Mahomes threw for 4,740 yards and 38 touchdowns. He threw just 6 picks. So any discussion about Kansas City’s offense must start with Mahomes.

Like Mahomes, the receivers are fantastic. It will be difficult for any football fan to find a better group of wide receivers than Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, and Demarcus Robinson. Tight-end Travis Kelce is the best tight-end in the league.

Kansas City’s running backs and offensive line are more difficult to assess than their quarterback and receivers. Clyde Edwards-Helaire was supposed to solve KC’s rushing issues. But after a terrific debut performance where he rushed for 138 yards and a touchdown, Edwards-Helaire struggled in his rookie season.

The former LSU running back ran for 803 yards and scored 4 rushing touchdowns. Edwards-Helaire caught 36 passes for 297 yards. He caught a single TD pass.

There’s also a question about Kansas City’s offensive line. The Chiefs’ rebuilt their O-line this season. One of the key moves KC made was to trade for Baltimore Ravens’ starting right tackle Orlando Brown Jr.

Brown Jr. played right tackle at Baltimore. He wants to play left tackle. Although he excelled playing left tackle in college, there’s no telling if Brown will be as effective on the left side as he was on the right side while playing for the Ravens. 

How Will KC’s Offense Affect Betting Lines?

The public rarely pays attention to players along the offensive line. Most of the time when handicapping, the public looks to quarterback, wide receiver, and running back. 

Last season, KC ranked first in yards per game with 415.6 each contest. But that didn’t always translate to points because the Chiefs ranked sixth in points per with 29.6 each game. 

But although those numbers are high, the Chiefs went 8-8 on the total. KC went 7-9 against the spread. Like last season, we should expect the Chiefs’ offensive stars to convince oddsmakers to create massive over/under total lines.

Also, like 2020, there’s a chance the Chiefs don’t cover as many games as NFL betting fans expect. In fact, the Chiefs could worse ATS this season than they were last season because Kansas City’s offensive line may not be as effective as so many expect.