NFL Betting Projections for AFC Conference Winners

Posted by Derrick Harper on December 13, 2018 in

While it’s mostly a trend throughout the entire postseason, home teams do particularly well in the conference championship game. Home teams have fared particularly well in this round as they have won 67-28 since the league’s merger in 1980. When the stakes are high, the home-field advantage can prove to be a decisive edge. Just look back to the 2018 playoffs where the young Jacksonville Jaguars held a 10-point, fourth-quarter lead on the road in New England but saw the Patriots rally to come back. Let’s take a look at the latest NFL Betting odds to win the AFC.

NFL Betting Projections for AFC Conference Winners

Bet the Favorites

Overall, favorites have won at an incredible clip in the championship game, going 64-31 straight up and 52-41-2 against the spread. Typically, the big favorites do best as they are 17-8 against the spread since 1970.

Bet the No. 1 Seeds

Teams who claim the No. 1 seed in their conference are not a fluke. It means that the team has performed the best in their respective conference throughout the entire regular season and survived the playoffs to get to the Championship Game.

No. 1 seeds do well in this spot as they have gone a perfect 9-0 straight up in the last five years. All in all, Vegas is smart. Vegas picks the spread and Vegas picks the favor in each matchup. Betting “chalk” is not a bad thing and it pays out more than it doesn’t but bettors will still lose a healthy amount as well. Favors don’t always cover, nor do they always win. The other thing betting “chalk” brings to bettors is an unexciting outcome in most cases. Betting “chalk” unless parlayed with other games and outcomes, will almost never get a bettor a big payout.

Here’s a look at how I think the AFC will shake down:

Division champions

AFC East – New England Patriots

The Patriots rule this division. They have and will continue to dominate it until further notice.

AFC West – Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have one of the best offenses in the league, nay, in recent history, but they have an atrocious defense. Getting home-field advantage was a must for them.

AFC South- Houston Texans

They simply have too large a lead to give up the division now.

The Texans are one of the favorites to compete for the AFC.

AFC North- Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are the most dangerous team in this division. They have the best offensive firepower, even without James Conner and LeVeon Bell. On top of that, they have a top ten defense. This is one of the few teams I like to win the Super Bowl.

AFC Wildcard

Los Angeles Chargers

Despite being the wildcard team, these guys have the second best record in the AFC. If it wasn’t for the fact that they have to play on the road in each round, I’d say they would be my dark horse to win the whole enchilada.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are a pretty good football team. They can’t run the football worth a lick, but they have a great defense and an outstanding, consistent quarterback. They also have the Giants and Titans on their remaining schedule.