NFL Betting: 2021 Offensive Rookie of the Year Predictions

Posted by Derrick Harper on June 17, 2021 in

MyBookie has you covered with the latest Offensive Rookie of the Year betting odds. Even with the NFL season a few months away, it’s never too early to lock in your future bets for season awards.

NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Betting Favorites

The Betting Favorites

Rookie of the Year is traditionally won by a quarterback, so it makes sense to see the five first-round quarterbacks near the top of the board.

  1. Trevor Lawrence: +200
  2. Trey Lance: +500
  3. Justin Fields: +550
  4. Najee Harris: +600
  5. Kyle Pitts: +700
  6. Zach Wilson: +750
  7. Mac Jones: +800
  8. Ja’Marr Chase: +1000
  9. Devonta Smith: +1200
  10. Davis Mills: +1600

Trevor Lawrence understandably has the highest odds as the top overall pick in the draft. Going in Lawrence’s favor is the ability to easily quantify the impact he can potentially bring.

By joining a 1-15 team in Jacksonville, even a few more wins will ultimately be attributed to Lawrence joining the team. It will be hard for the Jaguars to get much worse, so Lawrence is in an enviable position in that regard.

The first non-quarterback near the top of the rankings is Najee Harris, the new running back drafted in the first round by the Pittsburgh Steelers. The former Alabama star has a real chance at Rookie of the Year honors simply due to volume.

All indications suggest the Steelers plan to immediately make Harris their feature back, pushing 25 touches per game. That opportunity should bring with its statistics, which always aids an award campaign like this.

The Last Few Rookie of the Year Winners

Since 2010, six of the award winners have been at the quarterback position:

  • 2010: Sam Bradford, QB
  • 2011: Cam Newton, QB
  • 2012: Robert Griffin III, QB
  • 2013: Eddie Lacy, RB
  • 2014: Odell Beckham Jr., WR
  • 2015: Todd Gurley, RB
  • 2016: Dak Prescott, QB
  • 2017: Alvin Kamara, RB
  • 2018: Saquon Barkley, RB
  • 2019: Kyler Murray, QB
  • 2020: Justin Herbert, QB

While there has been variation between positions, it’s hard to ignore what just happened in 2020 and how much this award skews to the quarterback position.

Wide receiver Justin Jefferson for the Vikings had one of the most dominant seasons for a rookie WR ever. Jefferson’s stats were near the top of the league for all players, and it still wasn’t enough to overcome Herbert.

Keep this in mind when considering the few non-QBs this season.

Some Intriguing Picks

If volume is any indication of who could win this award, look no further than Devonta Smith. The Heisman-winning receiver walks onto a Philadelphia Eagles team, where he is immediately the top weapon in the passing game.

The Eagles have struggled to find competent receivers for the last decade-plus and now have one of the most dynamic talents they’ve ever had.

Smith is expected to lead the team in targets, and if he can rekindle some Alabama chemistry with starting quarterback Jalen Hurts, he could be in for a massive season.

Yes, the Rookie of the Year is typically a quarterback award, but so is the Heisman. +1200 is some strong value for a player who could be in for a big season.

Trey Lance is another interesting choice for the Rookie of the Year award. It can help when a rookie comes in and changes a franchise around as Lawrence can do. But Lance may have more than that in San Francisco.

Lance is joining the best team of all rookie quarterbacks, and if he usurps Jimmy Garoppolo as many expect, he could be leading a playoff team on a deep run. Team success is always factored into awards like this.

Best Picks:

  • Trevor Lawrence: +200
  • Trey Lance: +500
  • Devonta Smith: +1200