NFL Betting: 2021 New England Patriots Calendar Odds

Posted by Derrick Harper on June 7, 2021 in

For the New England Patriots, 2020 was a strange season. Not only did the Pats play without Tom Brady as their quarterback for the first time since 2000, they didn’t win more than 7 games and missed the playoffs. Owner Robert Kraft and coach Bill Belichick are determined to get back to the NFL Playoffs this season. Does the schedule set up for a New England return to the postseason? Are the NFL odds on the Patriots fair or unfair and what are the two key factors for New England to make the playoffs? Let’s try to find that out. 

2021 New England Patriots NFL Calendar Odds & Analysis

2021 NFL Season: Patriots Relying On Rookie Quarterback Mac Jones

  • When: Sep. 9, 2021 – Jan. 9, 2022

New England Patriots  Schedule & Odds Analysis

  • Odds to win Super Bowl 56: +2800

Where does the New England Patriots’ schedule land in terms of difficulty?

At first glance, the New England Patriots’ schedule doesn’t look overly difficult. But like with many NFL schedules, things aren’t as cut and dry as they seem.

The Pats must play the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, and New York Jets twice. The Bills and Dolphins have enough talent to win the Super Bowl. New England shouldn’t beat the Bills and Dolphins more than once. 

The Jets will be better but the Patriots figure to win both games. That leaves the Pats with 4 victories in their division. The out of division schedule is difficult. 

Sure, the Patriots get to play both the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars, two easy victories, but they must also battle the Los Angeles Chargers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Indianapolis Colts, Cleveland Browns, and Julio Jones’ new team, the Tennessee Titans. 

Beating even one of those squads could pose a challenge.  

What are some of the key games on the Patriots’ schedule?

Outside of their division games, the Patriots must step it up against AFC foes. 

  • at Houston Texans – Oct. 10
  • at Los Angeles Chargers – Oct. 31
  • vs. Cleveland Browns – Nov. 14
  • vs. Tennessee Titans – Nov. 28
  • at Indianapolis Colts – Dec. 19
  • vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – Jan. 2

Save for the Jags and Texans, the Patriots could have trouble beating any of the other teams on the above list. New England mustn’t overlook Houston or Jacksonville, either. DeShaun Watson remains a difference maker while the Jags could be a surprise team. 

Two key factors to the Patriots playoff quest

The first is Mac Jones. Supposedly, Jones has impressed his teammates and coaches during OTAs. But there’s a difference between OTAs, training camp, and playing in regular season games.

Jones, the former Alabama quarterback, must step it up for New England to have any shot of making the playoffs. Cam Newton didn’t play well last season. He hasn’t for a few seasons. So either Jones starts as a rookie and succeeds, or the Patriots probably stay home during the playoffs.

The second factor is cohesion. After the 2020 debacle, New England went through massive changes on both sides of ball. There’s no telling if Belichick’s squad is cohesive enough to beat teams like the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, and Cleveland Browns.  

Are the current Super Bowl odds on New England fair or unfair?

There are some positives regarding this New England Patriots squad. If the schedule plays to what the analysts believe it is, New England should win more games this season than last.

But the AFC East is loaded with Buffalo and Miami both possessing enough talent to win the Lombardi Trophy. Although the odds aren’t bad at +2800, we should ask for more value.

By betting on New England to win the Super Bowl, you’re saying you believe rookie Mac Jones is a savior and all the changes Belichick made during the offseason will work. Those are both bold statements to make.   

+3000 should be the cut off to back the Patriots to win Super Bowl 56. Anything less than +3000 constitute underlay odds.