Best Ways to Safely Handicap the 2019 NFL Preseason

Posted by Derrick Harper on August 6, 2019 in

The Atlanta Falcons and Denver Broncos kicked off the 2019 NFL Preseason last Thursday in the Hall of Fame Game in Canton, Ohio. Despite the fact that the game meant absolutely nothing, it was still a chance for football betting enthusiasts to get their first taste of action this season. In fact, more money was bet on that game over regular season MLB games at some sportsbooks around the United States that day. Let’s make an analysis of the NFL Betting action during the preseason.

Best Ways to Safely Handicap the 2019 NFL Preseason

How to Get Edge

While betting preseason football is an extremely risky proposition, there are certainly some things to learn and give yourself an edge over the bookmakers.

One of the most indicative factors is knowing the head coaches you’ll be dealing with. Certain ones have more of a drive to get the most out of every player on their roster, whether they’ll be starting or used a piece that adds more depth to the roster.

Of the active coaches in the NFL, John Harbaugh (29-15-1 ATS), Pete Carroll (23-12-1 ATS) and Mike Zimmer (14-7 ATS) have the best against-the-spread records. Looking at that list, it doesn’t come as much of a surprise, considering these guys are all great motivators.

On the flip side, Jason Garrett (12-20-1 ATS), Bill Belichick (25-31-4 ATS) and Andy Reid (28-32-1 ATS) are all guys that like to keep things close to the vest and save their energy for when it matters most. It’s no surprise that the latter two coaches on this list are two of the most creative minds in the game.

Betting against the public is something that a lot of sharp bettors do, but it’s especially beneficial when betting on NFL Preseason games.

When you think about it, the average bettor will probably place a wager on the New England Patriots over the Arizona Cardinals in a preseason scenario. There’s a huge mismatch of coaching, the stigma of each team is much different and the rosters are at opposite ends of the talent spectrum. However, the Patriots have absolutely no other interests besides making it out of the game healthy, while the Cardinals could use that win as a rallying cry to move forward.

Not to mention, Tom Brady probably wouldn’t even be playing.

Dancing Lines during the 2019 NFL Preseason

Since the majority of preseason games aren’t heavily bet, compared to the regular season. Because of that, you’ll see oddsmakers alter the lines if there’s too much action on one side. When they move a great deal, there can be some great value for the bettor when going against the public.

Right in tow with that line of thinking, it’s important to follow the reverse line movement as well. What this means is that the betting line will move in the opposite direction of the way the majority comes in from. If the Patriots are receiving most of the public’s money, and the Cardinals spread continues to move into a better position, that’s an indicative sign that the sharp action is there on the Cardinals.

As mentioned earlier, betting on preseason football is a tricky thing to do. Hopefully, this article gives you some additional ways to increase your winnings bets, and possibly even buck the notion that it’s not a profitable endeavor.