The Best & Worst Super Bowl LII Betting Props

4 Reasons Why the New England Patriots Will Win Super Bowl LI

Written by on January 23, 2017

After both the Atlanta Falcons and the New England Patriots delivered routs in their conference championship games to qualify for Super Bowl LI, the Patriots have emerged as three-point favorites to win the Lombardi Trophy in two weeks down in Houston. Both teams showed lightning-quick offensive capacity in the conference championships, although both of the losing teams (Green Bay and Pittsburgh) entered the game with real flaws in their passing defenses. Here are four reasons why the Patriots will win the sport’s biggest game. After you read our logic here, take a look at our Super Bowl 51 odds.

4 Reasons Why New England Will Win Super Bowl LI

It’s the coach, stupid

You can talk about how Bill Belichick has a reputation for pushing the ethical boundaries of the sport, and if you look at the scandals from videotaping other teams, you have a point. You can also talk about how the desire to get an edge in any way possible has become a mania for the team, as the whole DeflateGate scenario shows, and you would also have a point. But if you look at the way that Belichick always has a plan, no matter who is hurt, no matter who is on the field, no matter what the opposition brings, and that his teams regularly rattle off 12-, 13- and 14-win seasons — even 10 wins in the season that they had to start Matt Cassel at quarterback — you see coaching genius.

Julian Edelman and Martellus Bennett

A lot of people worried about the Patriots’ offense when tight end Rob Gronkowski went down for the season. However, backup tight end Martellus Bennett has emerged as a major force, and wide receiver Julian Edelman is turning out to be weapon on par with Green Bay’s Jordy Nelson. With Dion Lewis coming out of the backfield to catch passes, you have a New England offense that has three or four potent receiving targets, and the offensive line gives quarterback Tom Brady long enough to find one of them breaking open before a rusher can get to him.

The revenge factor

The Patriots have gone through two years of scrutiny — and a lot of vitriol in the press — because of the air pressure inside footballs. This should have led to a five-figure fine, according to the NFL manual, but it went through the legal system and ended up costing Brady 25% of his season. Since then, he has had an unbelievable year throwing the ball, and the rest of the league has been suffering as a result. If you don’t think Belichick and Brady want commissioner Roger Goodell — who has been studiously avoiding New England playoff games — to hand them the Lombardi Trophy, you’re badly mistaken.

Experience counts

This will be the ninth Super Bowl featuring Bill Belichick as head coach and Tom Brady as quarterback for the New England Patriots. No other coach-quarterback duo have appeared in that many. Matt Ryan will be appearing in his first title game, and Falcons head coach Dan Quinn is just in his second season running a team (although he did appear in two Super Bowls as the Seattle defensive coordinator). The title game is the ultimate in pressure — and the Patriots have been here, time and time again. They know how to handle this crucible, while the Falcons are about to enter it for the first time.