2018 NFL Season Betting Checklist

Posted by Juan Carlos on August 28, 2018 in

As you get ready for the upcoming 2018 NFL season, here are a few things we think you should take a look at first before selecting your NFL betting picks:

2018 NFL Season Betting Checklist

Evaluate the Schedules:

Identifying where teams will be at in their own division, conference, or wildcard push at any specific period within the season can really be a tool to help bettors size up what team is likely to be competitive and which teams are likely to be resting starters down the stretch.  Placing bets on games late in the season during week one can be risky, but getting in early bets can also be in the bettor’s favor as the line for specific games are often adjusted as the season progresses.  You may be able to pick up a game if you bet on a sleeper against a juggernaut if that juggernaut team is not playing to win and only to avoid injuries.

Know the Coaches:

Coaches change teams, coaches change personnel, but coaches rarely change themselves.  If they are a smashmouth run first offensive mind,  that coach will rarely become an air it out, risk taker.  If the coaches have more experience playing against each other, their head to head records are a much bigger factor than one might think for two individuals that stay on the sidelines.  Understanding the coaches in play is a surefire ticket to establishing calculated bets.

Identifying Risk vs Reward:

Close favors are often upset.  This is nothing new.  Vegas makes a close betting line for two reasons.  The first is because they simply are not that confident in the odds for that specific favorite.  The next is to increase bettor’s intrigue in those games or to spur betting on that matchup.  Close games can be a bettor’s best friend.  Betting against the spread in close games could come down to a touchdown in the redzone instead of a field goal or vice versa.  This is where you circle the games that are close and revisit them after doing your homework on coaches and the schedule for each team.

Understanding your Bet:

This one seems like a no brainer, but be strategic in how you bet.  In close games, identify your risk and reward for a straight up victory, covering the spread, prop bet, or fantasy pick.  For instance, you have identified a specific mismatch in a Saints vs. Buccaneers game.  Drew Brees has owned the Buccaneers as of late and without Mark Ingram behind him, you figure the Saints will be pass heavy for the matchup.

Betting straight up that the Saints win is one option, betting for them to cover the spread (+7), the point total for the game (52) or take a fantasy lineup with Brees as the quarterback, which only involves his stat.  Fantasy betting is a tough craft for this reason, you are betting on many individuals to take advantage of their individual match up, rather than betting on a whole team to win, lose, or cover.  Understanding when to take risks and what bet to place and when is of the utmost importance in order to maximize earnings, while also limit financial risk.

To sum it all up, do the research involved to make educated bets.  Keep this as cognitive as possible based on real facts, not hunches, not gut feelings, and not stats that do not affect the outcome of your bet.