Betting predictions and key numbers for 2019 March Madness

Posted by Derrick Harper on March 6, 2019 in

UMBC and Loyola-Chicago showed what they could do in the 2018 NCAA tournament. The former pulled off a historic upset of No. 1 Virginia as the No. 16 seed while the latter, with Sister Jean in tow, made it all the way to the Final Four as an 11 seed. Here’s a look at this year’s potential “come from Nowhere” teams based on their regular season output and the likelihood of getting a higher seed in the tournament alongside the latest NCAAB Odds for 2019 March Madness.

Betting predictions and key numbers for 2019 March Madness

WolfPack

Nevada (26-2, 13-2 Mountain West Conference) is projected to be a No. 5 seed but based on their adjusted scoring margin calculated by Pomeroy (plus-20.2) we would expect them to advance to the Elite Eight-five percent of the time, slightly lower than the average No. 5 seed has historically been given credit for (seven percent).

Instead, the Wolf Pack is best penciled into the Sweet 16 (36 percent chance vs. 29 percent chance for an average No. 5 seed) and no further to both maximize and differentiate your bracket from millions of others.

Wofford

Another team to take a long, hard look at is Wofford. The Terriers are outscoring opponents by 18.8 points per 100 possessions, the 25th best mark in the nation per Pomeroy, making them a dangerous foe in the 2019 NCAA tournament. Moreover, three-point shooting and the creation of extra possessions off turnovers and offensive rebounds are key indicators of teams ready to pull off an upset in the Big Dance, making Wofford one to watch. Senior, Fletcher Magee, the team’s 6-foot-4 guard is No. 2 in NCAA Division I men’s basketball history in career three-point shots made, surpassing Duke’s J.J. Redick.

Bulls

Buffalo, a No. 13 seed, upset No. 4 seed Arizona last year first round by a decisive margin, 89-68, putting them on the radar for another dazzling performance this time around. The Bulls won’t be a double-digit seed in 2019 but they can be a team that makes it further than you might think a No. 7 seed can. Buffalo ranks 21st in offensive efficiency and 28th in defensive efficiency, and the average tenure of the roster is 2.33 years, 18th-highest in the nation, with a bench that plays 29 percent of minutes this season.

The Bulls can win the 2019 March Madness.

That balance and experience could all pay off big in March. Seniors, Nick Perkins, and CJ Massinburg will both leave school as one of the team’s top scorers of all time with Massinburg passing former NBA player Wally Szczerbiak as one of the 20 best scorers in the Mid American Conference. Massinburg is also averaging a team-high 18.7 points per game 6.2 rebounds.

Double-digit seeds don’t normally make a Sweet 16 appearance yet the Aggies shouldn’t be quickly dismissed. They limit second-chance opportunities off the offensive boards (21.3 percent allowed) and are very good at defending the rim.

Aggies

The New Mexico State Aggies are another team likely to get a higher seed, yet still, pack some value in the tourney. The Aggies can rebound on both ends of the floor — 37.2 percent offensive rebound rate, 6th in nation, and 23.5 percent rate allowed on the defensive end, 13th — and use those rebounds to get second-chance opportunities.

Good luck with your 2019 March Madness bets!