USC Heads to Colorado as Favorite in Week 11 NCAAF Odds

Posted by Aaron . on November 12, 2015 in

This Friday, the Pac-12 features a matchup from the mountains as the USC Trojans head to Boulder to take on the Colorado Buffaloes. The Trojans (6-3) are favored by 16 points in the latest NCAAF odds against the Buffaloes (4-6) despite being the road team, and the over/under total is 61.5 points.

Date/Time: Friday, November 13th, 9:00 PM
Location: Folsom Field, Boulder, Colorado
Odds: USC -16½
TV: ESPN2
Online Live Stream: Watch ESPN

While that line might seem large, the Buffaloes only have one Pac-12 win this season and have dropped two straight, to UCLA and to Stanford. The Trojans have won three straight since their loss to Notre Dame, moving them to 4-1 in Pac-12 play. USC has shown a revival since interim coach Clay Helton took the reins from dismissed coach Steve Sarkisian. The Trojans have gone 3-1 since the transition, with the only blemish that loss to the Fighting Irish.

The emergence of freshman tailback Ronald Jones II is one reason why the Trojans have excelled in the past month. Jones has made his way into the end zone in each of the three wins after just getting three total in the team’s first six tilts of the season. He picked up 177 yards, a school record for a freshman, when USC beat Arizona 38-30 last week. He also added a five-yard scoring catch in the effort. USC did permit Arizona 412 yards of total offense, but USC showed the mental strength to keep on top even when the defense was faltering.

Colorado quarterback Sefo Liufau led the Pac-12 last season in a dubious category by throwing 15 picks. This year, he has only thrown six in his first ten games. His other numbers are not all that great, but his newfound ability to keep mistakes to a minimum has allowed the Buffaloes to come out on top in more games (four this year, with just two wins in 2014) and to stay competitive in more of the rest.

Colorado Buffaloes

Nelson Spruce is Liufau’s favorite target. Last year, Spruce hauled in 106 catches for 1,198 yards and a dozen scores. Defenses are more aware of him this year, but he still has caught 67 balls for 728 yards and a couple of touchdowns. He is now the all-time Pac-12 leader in receptions.

USC is 7-15 straight up in their last 22 road contests. In their last 29 games after a straight up win, they are 8-21 straight up. In their last seven November contests, they are 2-5 against the spread. Colorado is 4-0 against the spread in their last four games following a game when they gained fewer than 275 total yards. They are 6-2 with the over in their last eight home games against teams who came in with winning road records. Over their last 10 Friday games, they are 8-2 with the over.

USC trojans

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Southern Cal Trojans