USC Heads to Colorado as Favorite in Week 11 NCAAF Odds
This Friday, the Pac-12 features a matchup from the mountains as the USC Trojans head to Boulder to take on the Colorado Buffaloes. The Trojans (6-3) are favored by 16 points in the latest NCAAF odds against the Buffaloes (4-6) despite being the road team, and the over/under total is 61.5 points.
While that line might seem large, the Buffaloes only have one Pac-12 win this season and have dropped two straight, to UCLA and to Stanford. The Trojans have won three straight since their loss to Notre Dame, moving them to 4-1 in Pac-12 play. USC has shown a revival since interim coach Clay Helton took the reins from dismissed coach Steve Sarkisian. The Trojans have gone 3-1 since the transition, with the only blemish that loss to the Fighting Irish.
Colorado quarterback Sefo Liufau led the Pac-12 last season in a dubious category by throwing 15 picks. This year, he has only thrown six in his first ten games. His other numbers are not all that great, but his newfound ability to keep mistakes to a minimum has allowed the Buffaloes to come out on top in more games (four this year, with just two wins in 2014) and to stay competitive in more of the rest.
Nelson Spruce is Liufau’s favorite target. Last year, Spruce hauled in 106 catches for 1,198 yards and a dozen scores. Defenses are more aware of him this year, but he still has caught 67 balls for 728 yards and a couple of touchdowns. He is now the all-time Pac-12 leader in receptions.
USC is 7-15 straight up in their last 22 road contests. In their last 29 games after a straight up win, they are 8-21 straight up. In their last seven November contests, they are 2-5 against the spread. Colorado is 4-0 against the spread in their last four games following a game when they gained fewer than 275 total yards. They are 6-2 with the over in their last eight home games against teams who came in with winning road records. Over their last 10 Friday games, they are 8-2 with the over.
Betting Odds Trends
- Southern Cal is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Southern Cal’s last 6 games
- Southern Cal is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games on the road
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Southern Cal’s last 7 games on the road
- Southern Cal is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Colorado
- Southern Cal is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Colorado
- Colorado is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
- Colorado is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
- Colorado is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
- Colorado is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games at home
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Colorado’s last 9 games at home
- Colorado is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Southern Cal
- Colorado is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Southern Cal
The Trojans look to have more energy with Helton, but they are still working on consistency. The Trojans started poorly against Arizona and cannot afford to do that against Colorado if they want to cover. The fact that the ground game has worked well means that USC is likely to grind it out. So I like USC to win here, but I don’t like them to win by 16. Take CU to cover, and take the under.