Top College Week 5 Picks And Projections For Underdogs

Posted by Peter Boysen on September 27, 2016 in

If you’ve spent any time at all in college football betting, then you know that each week features some surprising upsets. Just in Week 4 we saw Notre Dame and Michigan State go down in flames in two of the biggest shockers. Which upsets can you expect to see in Week 5? Home teams are in all caps.

Analyzing The Top College Week 5 Picks And Projections For Underdogs



#21 TCU (+3.5) over Oklahoma

Given the fact that a middling SEC team (Arkansas) has already beaten TCU and that a non-Power 5 conference team (Houston) has already beaten Oklahoma (not to mention that shelling by Ohio State), the Big 12 has only a slender chance of sending a team to the College Football Playoff. The two teams that seem to have the best chance of winning the conference are TCU and Oklahoma, and since the Big 12 does not have a conference championship game, this game could end up naming the conference winner. Oklahoma has the better quarterback in Baker Mayfield, but I expect this to be a letdown week for the Sooners after they took such a whipping from the Buckeyes.

#8 WISCONSIN (+10.5) over #4 Michigan

Michigan has not faced any tough opposition (well, tougher than Penn State) up to this point. Wisconsin has already beaten LSU (at Lambeau Field) and Michigan State (on the road). So Wisconsin has two wins over top-10 programs, while Michigan simply has not had any comparable tests. The Wolverines have a new quarterback (Wilton Speight) who has not faced any elite defense, but he will see one from the Badgers. Michigan may have what it takes to pull out the win, but this oversized line does not reflect the reality of the matchup.

WASHINGTON STATE (+1) over Oregon

Since Mike Leach took over the Cougar program, Washington State has upset opponents at home left and right. Neither the Cougars nor the Ducks play much defense at all, so this game likely will hit the 40s on both sides. In track meets like that, the home team ends up on the right end of the score more often than not. Given that Oregon has such little respect from the books that they only have a one-point line, I like the Cougars to pull off a video game paced win at home.

Marshall (+14) over PITT

Marshall’s two losses have some big numbers attached to them, such as their 65-38 rout against Akron and their 59-28 whipping at the hands of Louisville. However, in the case of Akron, the multiple Marshall turnovers doomed them in that game — a contest that they led 21-7 after the first period. Given that Louisville didn’t beat Marshall as badly as they beat Florida State, I don’t see Marshall as a two-touchdown underdog against Pitt. The Panthers have given up 36, 38, and 39 points in the last three games, showing that they have defensive issues of their own. I like Pitt to win this game, but not by two touchdowns.