Top College Football Week 3 Upset Picks

Top College Football Week 3 Upset Picks

Written by on September 13, 2016

We have two weeks of the 2016 NCAA football season in the books, and there are some surprises (Houston at #6, and Wisconsin at 2-0) and some things we expected (Alabama at #1, Clemson at 2-0). Each week college football betting reveals some major upsets — and here are our picks for the most likely favorites to go down in Week 3.

Top College Football Week 3 Upset Picks

#10 Louisville (+2.5) over #2 Florida State

Florida State looked particularly impressive in their comeback over Ole Miss in Week 1, turning a 28-6 deficit into a big win. However, the Ole Miss offense is really one-dimensional, as quarterback Chad Kelly doesn’t have a strong running game to turn to, which let the Seminoles pin their ears back and rush the quarterback and drop seven or eight into coverage, leaving the box largely unattended. Both Louisville and Florida State have a cupcake win apiece, but then Louisville opened conference play last week with a 62-28 road thumping of Syracuse. The Cardinals roared out to an early 21-0 lead in the early minutes, and then 35-7 in the second quarter. The Orange did try to mount a little comeback in the third quarterback, closing within 14, but then they lost by 34. And this was a game that featured three Louisville turnovers. Syracuse is rebuilding, while Florida State is an elite power, but I think that Lamar Jackson and the Cardinals are looking for a statement game, and this is the one.

Pittsburgh (+6.5) over Oklahoma State

Last week, the Cowboys hosted Central Michigan, and the crazy play at the end of regulation saw Central Michigan come away with a bizarre combination of a Hail Mary and a lateral that showed, once again, that no matter how great an offense Mike Gundy builds in Stillwater, until he makes the same commitment to defense, the Cowboys will just be a novelty that is fun to watch instead of a contender. Last year, Oklahoma State was #87 in the nation in run defense, and running is what the Panthers do. Oklahoma State might win this game, but Pitt will grind it out against them all day long, and they will push this game down to the wire. I like the Panthers to cover this game.

#17 Texas A&M (+4) over Auburn

I thought long and hard about this one. After all, winning a couple of promising games and then going on the road to lose an important test against an equal competitor is basically a tradition in Aggieland. However, since the Aggies joined the SEC, while they haven’t joined the conference elite by any means, they have shown that they can win some big road games, and it’s not like Auburn is a contender in the SEC West either. With Trevor Knight in the fold at quarterback, the Aggies showed some legitimate offense in their win over UCLA and demolished Prairie View A&M, and while Auburn generally focuses on defense first, the combination of the run and pass that the Aggies win should be enough for them to win this straight up.