Top College Football Upset Picks Of The Week (Sept. 22-24)

Posted by Peter Boysen on September 20, 2016 in

One thing that makes college football so interesting to watch is that, every week, usually at least one favorite takes a big fall. We’ve seen Oklahoma, LSU and Florida State all head into the loss column, and we almost saw Alabama end up there against Ole Miss. Which big favorites will end up on the short end this week? Take a look at all of our college football betting picks.

A Closer Look At The Top College Football Upset Picks Of The Week (Sept. 22-24)

 

 

Auburn (+3.5) over #18 LSU

Last week, Texas A&M went to Auburn Tigers and came away with a 29-16 win, and the Aggies now stand at #10 in the national rankings. LSU knocked of Mississippi State at home last week, but the Bulldogs are not nearly the same team they were when Dak Prescott was running the offense. The difference between Texas A&M and LSU is that the Aggies feature an offense with dynamic balance, while the Tigers struggle to throw the ball down the field. All Auburn has to do is follow the lead of LSU’s earlier opponents and load the box, and follow the same grinding ground approach that Wisconsin used in their Week 1 win over the Tigers.

#19 Florida over #14 Tennessee

Tennessee’s high spot in the national rankings stems in large part from that top-10 ranking that they started the season with. They haven’t looked particularly impressive in any of their three wins to open the season, which is why they have slid down the ladder a bit. They needed overtime (and a missed field goal in regulation) to beat Appalachian State, and while they routed Virginia Tech in Week 2, that school sits in the middle of a rebuilding program. Week 3 featured a close game against MAC foe Ohio, and now Tennessee meets its first conference play — and first real competition.

The Gators come into the game without starting quarterback Luke Del Rio, so they will feature a ground game, which plays more toward the strengths of backup quarterback Austin Appleby. However, the Volunteers have struggled to control the line of scrimmage in all three of their games so far, so this could play in Florida’s favor. Florida has also played stellar defense this far, and they will look to shut down tailback Jalen Hurd and quarterback Joshua Dobbs. The Gators have a terrific secondary led by Jalen Tabor that will look to keep the Volunteer passing attack in check.

Given Tennessee’s lack of experience in big games and their struggles with much lesser opponents, they sit ripe for a big upset at the hands of the Gators.

Oklahoma State over #16 Baylor

Baylor’s nonconference schedule has been, quite frankly, devoid of competition. They’ve beaten Northwestern State, SMU and Rice. Oklahoma State hasn’t had a much tougher schedule, but they did knock off Pittsburgh, an ACC foe, in a shootout up in Stillwater. What we do know is that the Cowboys have a high-octane offense that works against Power 5 conference opposition. We also know that Baylor only mustered six points in the first half against an SMU team led by a backup quarterback. So when a real offense shows up for the first time in Waco this weekend, I see Baylor having a hard time keeping up. The Cowboys would have an unblemished record if the officials had done their job at the end of their loss to Central Michigan, so I see this 9.5-point line as a little unbalanced.