NCAAF Odds Preview: Southern Miss vs Western Kentucky

Posted by Aaron . on December 4, 2015 in

This Saturday afternoon, Southern Mississippi heads to Western Kentucky for the Conference USA Championship game. Western Kentucky is favored to win by 7.5 points. Let’s take a closer look at this NCAAF odds matchup.

Southern Miss Golden Eagles

Southern Miss has been dreadful in recent years, going 4-32 in the past three seasons. This year, the Golden Eagles started 3-3, with tough non conference losses to Nebraska and Mississippi State. However, since then, they have rattled off six straight wins, including a surprise blowout of Louisiana Tech last week, as they won on the road, 58-24, to win their division. Southern Miss jumped out to a 24-3 lead before the Bulldogs clawed back to within a touchdown. Then the Golden Eagles added 27 consecutive points to salt away the win. Southern Miss gained 555 yards of offense on the day, with quarterback Nick Mullens throwing for three scores and 386 yards. Ito Smith carried the ball for 169 yards and three more touchdowns. Southern Miss had seven takeaways from the Louisiana Tech offense. In their last three games, Southern Miss has scored 179 points, with a 3-0 record against the spread.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Western-Kentucky-NCAAF-Odds-compressor

Western Kentucky had a perfect record in Conference USA play, and they enter the conference championship on a four-game winning streak. Last week, they routed the Thundering Herd of Marshall, 49-28. They out gained Marshall 546-243. Tailback Anthony Wales picked up his fourth straight hundred-yard effort, picking up 131 yards. Quarterback Brandon Doughty tossed five touchdown passes, picking up 370 yards. At the same time, the Hilltopper defense held Marshall to only 31 yards. In their last four games, Western Kentucky has picked up 202 points, going 2-1-1 against the spread.

In their last 11 C-USA games, Western Kentucky is 11-0 straight up. Southern Miss is 10-2 against the spread in their last 12 games. This is a match up of two dominant teams, and I think that this line is a little bit too big. So while I think Western Kentucky can win, I think it will be closer than a touchdown, so I’m taking Southern Miss with those points.