SMU vs Baylor College Football Odds Preview

Posted by Peter Boysen on September 7, 2016 in

Baylor polished off Northwestern State, 55-7, in their Week 1 opener, while SMU struggled to put away North Texas in their opener, 34-21. The Mustangs and Bears last met in 2015, with Baylor dominating the second half to win, 56-21. These former Southwest Conference foes now meet in non conference play in a regional rivalry. While this used to be a more balanced rivalry, Baylor’s meteoric rise in recent years has left SMU behind, as the Mustang program still struggles to get past the legacy of the only death penalty ever issued by the NCAA to a sports program. Check out the college football odds for the NCAA action this week.

 

SMU vs Baylor College Football Odds Preview

When: Saturday, September 10, 2016, 3:30pm ET
Where: McLane Stadium, Waco, TX
TV: FS1
Radio: Baylor IMG Sports Network
Live Stream: Big 12 Digital Network
NCAAF Odds: Baylor (-32)

Why should you bet on the Mustangs?

SMU put up 572 yards of total offense in Week 1, and while their defense has taken some lumps in the past couple of years, they did pick off a couple of North Texas passes in the first quarter. If they can keep up that pass defense for more than a quarter this Saturday, they should stay well within this line. Quarterback Matt Davis will be a game-time decision, though, because he hurt his knee last week. He threw for 155 yards and ran for 91 more, accounting for two touchdowns, and he found Courtland Sutton for three touchdowns, including an 88-yard score that was the school’s fifth longest touchdown. Justin Lawler led the Mustangs with eight tackles and racked up 3.5 sacks, having a monster day. With more defensive consistency, SMU should cover easily.

Why should you put your money on Baylor?

Baylor looks like they have put their recent scandals behind them when they take the field, thanks to the work of interim head coach Jim Grobe. Their Week 1 opponent was an FCS school, so a win was expected, although Grobe had never coached a team that put 55 points on the board before. Despite the loss of quarterback Jarrett Stidham after the departure of former head coach Art Briles, Baylor did not seem to have any issues putting up offense in bunches last week, and it’s not like SMU is a defensive power. Last week, SMU permitted the North Texas passing game 311 yards through the air, and Baylor’s offense is significantly better than what North Texas puts out there. Baylor will need to score and score quickly to cover this line, but if SMU’s defense isn’t any better in Week 2, covering shouldn’t be a problem.

Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction

I like Baylor to win this game, but I think SMU stays closer to them than they did last year thanks to improvements on both sides of the ball. I’m predicting a 34-24 Bear victory.