NCAAF Lines Favor Oklahoma on Road at Oklahoma State
Last year, the Big 12 billed itself as the conference that produced “one true champion” since their round-robin schedule means that every member plays every other member during the regular season. This means that, at the end of the season, there should be a clear champion. Of course, that ended up backfiring on the conference last year when they then tried to crown TCU and Baylor co-champions in a ruse to try and get TCU into the first CFP semifinals, only to have the committee rank Baylor at #5 and TCU at #6. That round-robin format may end up backfiring against the conference again this year, as you could end up with four teams in the conference (Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Baylor and TCU) who end up beating each other enough times to make sure that everyone has at least two losses and can’t qualify for one of those spots.
Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State Game Preview and NFL Lines
Game Odds: Oklahoma Sooners -7
TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Online streaming: WatchESPN
— Oklahoma Football (@OU_Football) November 16, 2015
Right now, the only Big 12 school that appears to have a realistic shot at a CFP berth is Oklahoma. If Oklahoma State had beaten Baylor last week, this week’s Bedlam rivalry game would probably be for a playoff spot. However, if Oklahoma wins, that will mean that they beat TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma State in three consecutive weeks to win the Big 12. It would be extremely difficult to argue against their resume even with that early-season loss to the University of Texas. If the Cowboys can win this game, though, Oklahoma would likely fall out of the CFP slot that they currently hold.
Even though the game is at Oklahoma State, the Sooners are seven-point favorites. Oklahoma’s offense is not all that efficient, especially when Baker Mayfield has had to step off the field. Trevor Knight, the backup, does not have what it takes to succeed in the Air Raid offense, so if Mayfield has to come out again or can’t start, the Sooners need a different offensive approach. The latest reports have Mayfield starting, but if he can’t go the whole way or if he can’t start, there needs to be a Plan B.
James Washington is Oklahoma State’s most explosive weapon. This wideout averages over 20 yards per catch this season. Quarterback Mason Rudolph has developed a powerful sync with him, and Washington’s perimeter speed means the Cowboys can score from any place on the field. The Sooners will roll their coverage that way, meaning that Cowboy receivers Marcell Ateman and David Glidden should have plenty of open space.
Betting Odds Trends
- Oklahoma is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
- Oklahoma is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oklahoma’s last 6 games
- Oklahoma is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
- Oklahoma is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
- The total has gone OVER in 9 of Oklahoma’s last 11 games on the road
- Oklahoma is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Oklahoma State
- Oklahoma is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing Oklahoma State
- Oklahoma is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma State
- Oklahoma is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma State
- Oklahoma State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
- Oklahoma State is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oklahoma State’s last 5 games
- Oklahoma State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oklahoma State’s last 5 games at home
- Oklahoma State is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Oklahoma
- Oklahoma State is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games when playing Oklahoma
- Oklahoma State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oklahoma
- Oklahoma State is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Oklahoma
The Cowboys’ defense has picked up 27 turnovers this year, #2 in the nation. That could cause huge problems for Oklahoma. Given the strength of this rivalry and the intense preparation that Cowboys coach Mike Gundy puts in for this game each year, I like the Cowboys to knock the Sooners off here. Mayfield is not likely to last the whole game, and the Cowboys will be angry to get revenge for last week’s loss to Baylor, meaning they will take advantage of the chance to keep the Sooners out of the CFP as well.