Kansas State vs Arkansas NCAA Liberty Bowl Pick Analysis

Posted by Aaron . on December 31, 2015 in

Two teams that shook off poor starts to earn bowl eligibility meet on January 2 in the Liberty Bowl in Memphis, as the Arkansas Razorbacks take on the Kansas State Wildcats. They last met in 2012, when Arkansas prevailed 29-16 as a 9.5-point favorite. This year, the Razorbacks are 12-point pick favorites with a 62.5-point over/under total.

Why should you pick the Razorbacks (-12)?

The Razorbacks started 2-4 straight up (3-3 ATS). However, they won five of six down the stretch (4-2 ATS), including a wild overtime win over Ole Miss and a 31-14 thumping of LSU. The only setback in the last six was a 51-50 loss to Mississippi State the Saturday before Thanksgiving. While the defense might give up a lot of points, the offense has found its overdrive under Bret Bielema. Also, Kansas State barely made it to six wins, thanks in large part to three wins over cupcake non-conference competition to start the season — in which they only covered the spread once.

Kansas State wants to finish their season and year with a bowl win vs Arkansas.

Why should you take Kansas State (+12)?

It’s difficult to argue that Kansas State can win this game, thanks to the prolific Razorback offense. However, they have played close games all season long, and now that they have emerged from an injury bug, they could keep this game competitive as well. Head coach Bill Snyder has built a tough-nosed defense, something that could trip up the Razorbacks and keep this game within a touchdown.

Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction

This bowl berth is a real gift for Kansas State. I like the Razorbacks to pound the Wildcats all day long and win (and cover), 41-14.