Connecticut at #6 Houston NCAA Football Odds

Posted by Peter Boysen on September 27, 2016 in

The sixth-ranked Houston Cougars host the Connecticut Huskies in an American Athletic Conference tilt Thursday night down in the Lone Star State. In 2015, Connecticut dealt Houston their only loss of the season, winning 20-17 up in Hartford as the Cougars had to play without starting quarterback Greg Ward, Jr. Last week, Houston rolled over Texas State, 64-3, while Connecticut fell at home to the Syracuse Orange, 31-24. Check out all of our college football betting lines.

 Connecticut at #6 Houston NCAA Football Odds

When: Thursday, September 29, 2016, 8:00pm ET
Where: TDECU Stadium, Houston
TV: ESPN
Radio: Sports Radio ESPN 1420 AM Houston / UConn IMG Sports Network
Live Stream: WatchESPN
NCAAF Odds: Houston (-25.5)

 

Why should you bet on the Huskies?

Even with a 25.5-point line, this case is a challenging one to make. Houston will want to exact revenge for that loss last year, and the Huskies can’t do much to stop them. Syracuse does not have a great offense, but they still put up 407 passing yards against Connecticut, which has allowed 22.5 points per game so far this season, ranking #46 in the nation. Connecticut did hold the Orange to just 62 running yards, but Houston brings a lot more firepower.

Quarterback Bryant Shirreffs has been a bright spot for Connecticut, and Noel Tomas appears to be his favorite target so far, racking up 111 receiving yards on 14 catches last week and catching 26 balls for 388 yards so far on the season. However, Shirreffs has not led the offense to much success, as the team ranks #109 in the nation with 21.2 points per game.

Why should you put your money on the Cougars?

The Cougar offense runs like a well-oiled machine, particularly now that Greg Ward Jr. runs the offense. Against Texas State, he went 20 for 206 for 289 yards and a pair of scores with no interceptions. He missed Week 2 against Lamar, but in his three games so far he has thrown for 936 yards with five touchdowns and two picks. The Cougars also boast a strong rushing game, as they galloped for 243 yards against Texas State, led by 70 yards from Duke Catalon. Houston scores 44.8 points per game, #12 in the country.

Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction

Let’s take a look at the numbers. Connecticut has an 0-5 ATS record in their last five road games against a team with a winning record at home. In their last five games against a team with a record better than .500, they have a 1-4 ATS record. In their last 27 games away from home, they have posted a 6-20-1 record ATS. Meanwhile, Houston has gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games (with that Connecticut loss last year the lone exception). If you throw in that revenge factor, you have a real case to take Houston even with that gargantuan line. I predict a 52-10 Cougar win.