Bowling Green vs Northern Illinois NCAAF Spread and Preview

Posted by Aaron . on November 30, 2015 in

This Friday night will feature the Falcons of Bowling Green (9-3) visiting Northern Illinois to take on the Huskies (8-4) in the MAC Championship Game. Last week, Bowling Green destroyed Ball State, 48-10, covering a 23-point NCAAF spread as road favorites and then some. The Falcons outgained Ball State, 576-264 and snatched three Ball State passes out of the air for interceptions. Falcon quarterback Matt Johnson went 24 for 31 for 236 yards and pair of scores, with Gehrig Dieter grabbing 11 of those passes for 81 yards and a touchdown. Fred Coppet ran for 109 yards and a touchdown, and Matt Domer ran just three times for 105 yards of his own (and a touchdown). Travis Greene ran the ball 17 times for 97 yards, adding two more touchdowns, almost giving the Falcons THREE 100-yard rushers in the same game.

Even though Northern Illinois lost to Ohio (26-21) at home last week, their overall record was good enough to give them the right to host the conference championship. They did not play to their usual standards, trailing 20-7 at halftime. Ohio outgained Northern Illinois, 398-328 and had more than 35 minutes of time of possession.

Northern Illinois had no rushing game to speak of, having to rely on their passing attack. Their two quarterbacks, Ryan Graham and Tommy Fielder, combined to go 20 for 34 for 255 yards and a score each. Juwan Brescacin caught six balls for 114 yards, and Kenny Golladay caught six more passes for 72 yards and two touchdowns.

bowling-green-ncaaf-spread

 

When Bowling Green plays on a Friday, the over is 4-0 the last four times. When they play in December, the over is 7-0 the last seven times. In this game, the Falcons are favored by 9 points, and that over-under total is an eye-popping 71. After a loss against the spread, Northern Illinois is 4-0 against the spread the next week in their last four tries. When Northern Illinois has played a winning team, the “under” has gone 5-1 the last six times. In their last seven games overall, the Huskies are 5-1-1 against the spread.

Using the eye test, though, I like Bowling Green to come in and roll in this one. I like Bowling Green to win and cover that spread. However, I don’t see the total getting over 71, so if that’s a proposition that you like to play, I’d stick with the under unless you can buy it down.