Bowling Green Faces Huge NCAAF Spread Against Ball State

Posted by Aaron . on November 23, 2015 in

This Tuesday night, Bowling Green (8-3) hits the road to take on the Ball State Cardinals (3-8) in Muncie, Indiana in a game that should be an easy win for the Falcons. The team heads to this Tuesday night match fresh from a reverse to the Toledo Rockets, but despite the bitter loss, Bowling Green is favored to win the game by a gargantuan 21.5-point NCAAF Spread.

Bowling Green vs Ball State Game Preview and NCAAF Spread

Date/Time: Tuesday, November 24, 7:00 PM
Location: Scheumann Stadium, Muncie, Indiana
NCAAF Spread: Bowling Green -21½
TV: ESPN3
Radio: Falcon Radio Network

Bowling Green has already locked up a berth in the MAC Championship game on December 4 and now is awaiting their opponent from the MAC West. However, Bowling Green lost their last game to Toledo, 44-28. Ball State is out of contention for the MAC West, but that doesn’t mean that they won’t be hungry to pull the upset this week. Bowling Green lost a tough home game last Tuesday to Toledo. However, quarterback Matt Johnson threw two picks to go along with his 274 yards and three touchdowns, and the Falcons also lost three fumbles.

 

Johnson only has six interceptions total for the whole year (along with 39 touchdowns and 4,229 yards). His favorite receiver is Roger Lewis (72 receptions, 1,342 yards, 14 touchdowns), although Gehrig Dieter has been a key possession receiver for Bowling Green, hauling in 71 balls for 801 yards and eight touchdowns. The Falcons are #2 in the nation with 401.4 passing yards per game, but they are #98 in passing yards permitted per game (436.5) and #83 in points permitted. So this is a team that has to score in bunches to win.

 

Bowling Green Football 2015

On the other hand, Ball State has been going through a rebuilding campaign this year. The team has 56 freshmen or sophomores in its roster, plus two true freshmen playing on defense. Ball State gets torched on defense through the air, though. They lost 54-7 against Western Michigan and allowed 711 total yards. The lowest to Ohio U. last week, giving up 607 total yards in a 48-31 defeat. The offense has not been strong enough to compensate for a highly porous defense.

Bowling Green vs Ball State Odds Trends

Bowling Green Falcons

  • Bowling Green is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
  • Bowling Green is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
  • Bowling Green is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
  • Bowling Green is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Bowling Green’s last 5 games on the road
  • Bowling Green is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Ball State

 Ball State Cardinals

  • Ball State is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
  • Ball State is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ball State’s last 5 games
  • Ball State is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games at home
  • Ball State is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games at home
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ball State’s last 5 games at home
  • Ball State is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Bowling Green

Bowling Green is 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven games after a loss against the spread. In their last 16 November games, they are 11-4-1 against the spread. After they have lost straight up, they are 9-4 against the spread in their last 13. Ball State is 3-9 against the spread in their lats 12 home games and 1-5 against the spread in their last six November games.

Ball State Cardinals

 

Betting Analysis:
Normally I would not go with a line this big for a team that has already clinched a spot in its conference championship. However, Bowling Green is coming off a tough loss and is likely to feel like it has something to prove – and Ball State does not have what it takes to stop them. So I would take Bowling Green here, even though you’re laying those 20.5.