Bold 2016 Win Totals College Football Betting Analysis and Picks

Posted by Aaron . on June 8, 2016 in

The 2016 College Football Betting Win Totals have been doing the rounds in sportsbooks, with the top teams in the nation receiving priority in the early wagering lines. Notably, not all the win totals for every single FBS team have been released yet, so we can only discuss the ones that are available, centering our focus on the teams and NCAAF odds that have drawn the most interest early. That being said, here is our early 2016 college football totals betting analysis and picks.

Bold 2016 Win Totals College Football Betting Analysis and Picks

 

 

Best OVER Bets for 2016 NCAAF Win Totals

Alabama OVER 9.5

Interestingly, most sportsbooks have the reigning national champs pegged on a single-digit win total in the early online betting lines, something that has seen a lot of public betting action in the OVER side so far. Now, it is obvious that Nick Saban is a great recruiter and the Tide have been hitting the double-digit win mark so regularly that going below that mark, especially after winning the national title, seems unlikely. Still, I get why the Oddsmakers are a bit cautious with this year’s group. The Crimson Tide lost some key pieces in the offseason in crucial skill positions, including QB and RB, so it will be a tough ask for the team to withstand the pressure that will come tough road games on the season in places like Tennessee, LSU and Mississippi, along with a couple of swing home games. Will the Tide rise or fall? It’s too early to tell, but my experience tells me that 10 wins is very possible for Alabama, so if you can find a line that still offers 9.5 in the win totals, take that for an OVER.

Baylor OVER 9

I am fully aware about the Art Briles fiasco and why very few people are willing to trust in the Bears now that their proven long-time head coach is gone. Additionally, 2015 Biletnikoff Award winner Corey Coleman and Jay Lee, who combined for 112 receptions, 2,121 receiving yards and 28 touchdowns last year, are gone, leaving gaps in the offense. But surely, the Bears still have some big value pieces from last year’s campaign, so the team won’t be regressing that much. As served by memory, Baylor started last year on a splendid 6-0 mark last season, scoring 45-or-more points in each of those games and ranking No. 2 in the country. That was until Baylor quarterback Seth Russell, who was among the Heisman favorites at the time, suffered a season-ending damage to the cervical vertebra in his neck vs. Iowa State in Week 7. This was followed by Baylor seeing two more quarterbacks get hurt, with the team consequentially losing three of its final four regular-season games. With Russell back to full health and participating in spring activities and the likes of WR KD Cannon (50 receptions, 868 yards and six touchdowns last year), RB Shock Linwood (1,329 yards rushing 10 TDs last year) and RB Johnny Jefferson (1,000 yards, 8 TDs) being talented enough to pick up the slack in Baylor’s offense that led the nation in scoring and yardage in 2015; the Bears could easily have another big year. The hiring of the defensive-minded head coach Jim Grobe, a former Wake Forest coach, should see better play by Baylor defensively. Add that to Baylor’s incredibly easy non-conference schedule, the team should be 6-0 when it visits Texas on Oct. 29, giving them a very solid chance to go above 9 wins if it can stay healthy and close the season on a better run than last year’s forgetful regular-season ending.

Other 2016 NCAAF OVER Win Total Picks: Oregon (8.5), Ohio State (9.5), Florida State (9.5), Notre Dame (9.5), Clemson (10.0).

Oklahoma OVER 10

With Baylor having its above-mentioned challenges and TCU almost certain to backslide after a depleting offseason that ridded the Frogs of several starters, the stage couldn’t be set any better for a Big 12 cruise by Oklahoma. The experienced returning talent in Oklahoma’s attacking department—led by star QB Baker Mayfield, a retuning stud at running back in Samaje Perine and a high-potential graduate transfer in former Penn State wide receiver Geno Lewis, who should help offset the loss of star wide receiver Sterling Shepard—is a sure-fire bet for big offensive production by the Sooners in 2016. Defensively, the Sooners could also be huge, led by a probable All-American at cornerback in Jordan Thomas. Combine that with a largely easy regular season schedule, with non-conference games at Houston and vs. Ohio State, a conference visit to West Virginia standing as Oklahoma’s toughest games, the Sooners should be able to offer solid value on OVER a 10-win total.

Best UNDER Bets for 2016 NCAAF Win Totals

Tennessee UNDER 9.5

Look, the Volunteers did have a pretty decent campaign in 2015 and the fact that the team is returning with arguably the most experienced squad in the SEC (totaling a whopping 18 returning starters) means danger to Alabama and nearly every team in this conference. But then again, this is a Tennessee team that is not used to playing the entire season with a target on its back in every game. It would therefore not be unreasonable to expect the Vols to lose two or more games in the regular season, especially if you consider that they have a daunting 2016 schedule that includes games vs. Florida (on September 24th), followed by at Georgia, at Texas A&M, vs. Alabama and at South Carolina with a bye coming in between the Bama and South Carolina games. With that, UNDER 9.5 wins sounds more appealing and realistic than betting OVER the same number.

Memphis Tigers UNDER 6.5 Wins

After going 5-31 in three years before he arrived in Memphis, HC Justin Fuente revolutionized the Tigers a big way, helping Memphis to accumulate 10 wins and 9 wins by his third and fourth years with the team. Unfortunately for Memphis, that rebuilding agenda is now over, as Fuente left in the offseason to take the Virginia Tech head coaching job, leaving very big shoes for his successor. The Tigers selected Mike Norvell as the new head coach, following a stint of several years at Arizona State as an offensive coordinator. Besides being a decent offensive maestro, there’s really nothing special about Norvell. Adding to this head coaching challenge is the fact that the Tigers have new offensive and defensive coordinators, meaning Memphis players will be learning new systems and plays, hence a steep learning curve for these players. Roster-wise, the team will also be hard-done to replace standout QB Paxton Lynch who is now in the NFL. And as if that is not enough to deal with, Memphis’ 2016 schedule is no piece of cake, either, as the Tigers face challenging non-conference games in Bowling Green and Ole Miss to go along with a slew of good AAC teams such as Temple, Tulsa, South Florida, Cincinnati, Houston and SMU. As such, I highly doubt if the rebuilding Tigers will be able to get to 7 or more wins, no wonder we are recommending the UNDER 6.5 total.

Other 2016 NCAAF UNDER Win Total Picks: USC (8.5), Stanford (8.5), Georgia (9.0) LSU (9.5), Michigan 9.5.