NCAAF Betting: 2021 National Championship Betting Preview

Posted by Derrick Harper on January 8, 2021 in

After a college football season filled with many ups and downs, we’re finally at the end of the road. On Monday night at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, one of the most unique seasons in college football history will end, as the Alabama Crimson Tide will meet the Ohio State Buckeyes for the College Football National Championship. Let’s have a closer look at how both teams arrive to this matchup so you can wager against their NCAAF odds.

NCAA Football National Championship Betting Analysis

No Stranger

The #1 Crimson Tide are no stranger to the championship game. This will be their fifth CFP Championship game in the Nick Saban era. The Tide are 2-2 in the National Title game. A win on Monday night would be the sixth title that Alabama has won since Saban took over the program.

In what many felt was an upset, the #3 Ohio State Buckeyes beat down the favored Clemson Tigers 49-28 to claim their spot in Monday’s game. This will be their fourth CFP appearance, and second appearance in the CFP. Ohio State only played six regular season games, as the Big 10 started their season later than most of the other conferences. They had to get the Big 10 to change their rules to even get into the Big 10 Championship game.

Alabama sports a high-powered offense. They average just over 48 points per game. Their skill players are the best group in the nation. Quarterback Mac Jones leads the way. Jones has led an aerial onslaught this season. With Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith has been a monster, combine him with John Metchie, and maybe even Jaylen Waddle, and you have a top tier offense.

Ohio State’s offense is no slouch either. Justin Fields is one of the top quarterbacks in the country. If he’s fully healthy for Monday’s game, he’ll put up some numbers against an Alabama defense that has given up more yards and points than your typical Alabama defense. Look for a heavy dose of Trey Sermon running the ball for Ohio State.

These two have never faced off in a National Championship game. Alabama is a 7.5 point favorite. Alabama is 8-4 against the spread this season. They’re 2-1 when favored by less than 20 points. A favorable number for Alabama is the fact that they’re 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games with members of the Big 10 Conference. One stat that stands out for Ohio State is that since 2012, they are 8-1 against the spread when they are underdogs, in their last 13 total games as an underdog, OSU is 11-2. Another favorable betting stat if you’re going to go with the Buckeyes, is the fact that when Alabama is favored by a touchdown or less, they’re 2-5-1 against the spread.

Points on the Board

As for the over/under, the total is 75.5. With these two high-powered offenses, and defenses that haven’t been putting up stellar numbers, the oddsmakers are predicting a high-scoring affair. The last four times that Alabama has played for the National Championship, the over has cashed in. As for Ohio State, the over is 4-1-1 in their last six games.