Baylor Enters Week 8 as Double Digit Fav in NCAAF Odds

Posted by Aaron . on October 22, 2015 in

After Iowa State roared out to a 21-14 lead at the end of the first quarter against TCU last week, observers from far and wide were wondering why Joel Lanning doesn’t get more time at quarterback for the Cyclones. After all, with him coming in to pass when Sam Richardson’s running prowess wasn’t needed, Iowa State built a lead on the #4 team in the nation.

Iowa State Cyclones (2-4) @ Baylor Bears (6-0)

Date/Time: Saturday, October 24, 12:00 PM
Location: McLane Stadium, Waco, Texas
TV: ESPN
Radio: ESPN Central Texas
NCAAF OddsBaylor -37

So can Iowa State fans expect to see more of Lanning when the team heads to Waco, Texas, this weekend to take on the #2 Baylor Bears? As Cyclones head coach told Randy Peterson of the Des Moines Register, that question was to be “part of [their] Sunday analysis.”

For any sort of offense to work for the Cyclones this week, though, creativity will have to be the name of the game. The playbook needs to be wide open against the Bears, as it was for 15 minutes against the Horned Frogs. They started the game with a 31-yard toss to Dondre Daley. The first quarter also saw a 74-yard dagger from Lanning to Allen Lazard. They pulled off a successful quarterback sneak by Richardson. They even converted a fake punt into a first down and recovered an onside kick.

Iowa State

So where did the creativity go in the last three quarters against Iowa State? The press was told that TCU had made some competitive adjustments, while the Cyclones did not recalibrate their trick plays to adjust. As wideout Quenton Bundrage said, though, the team needs to keep pushing the ball down the field with deep passes.

Lazard proved to be a mismatch against a TCU secondary that has given up all kinds of yards and points this year. Luckily, the offense, powered by Trevone Boykin, has been able to cover up the flaws of the defense. If the officials had not blown a call on an incompletion, so Bundrage argues, the game would have been even closer. Iowa State needs to keep throwing down the field against Baylor to compete.

Betting Trends

  • Iowa State is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games
  • Iowa State is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Iowa State’s last 10 games
  • Iowa State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
  • Baylor is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Baylor is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Baylor’s last 7 games
  • Baylor is 18-5 ATS in its last 23 games at home

So why use Joel Lanning? According to offensive coordinator Mark Mangino, the team feels trust in the sophomore with the rifle arm. He didn’t get more reps on Saturday perhaps because of his current lack of experience throwing the ball. Richardson isn’t running as much as he was back in August and September, but Lanning brings fresh, speedy legs to the task.

Baylor Bears

Another question mark for the Cyclones is running back Mike Warren, who sidled carefully off the field in the fourth quarter against TCU. He never returned in what was reported as a precaution. Warren is the only type of consistency that the team has featured on offense this year. He only needs an average of 58 yards per game over the next six tilts to gain 1,000 yards. The last Cyclone to do that? Alexander Robinson in 2009. So it will be interesting to see if the Cyclones can make things as tough on Baylor as they did, at least early on, against TCU.