NCAAF Spread: Baylor and OSU Face in Game with No Favs

Posted by Aaron . on November 20, 2015 in

The College Football betting action gets red hot this coming weekend when the Baylor Bears head north to take on conference rivals, the Oklahoma State Cowboys, in a game that will decide the absolute lead in the BIG 12 . Oklahoma State (10-0) opened as a one-point favorite over Baylor (8-1), but the NCAAF spread has been adjusted and the current odds show both teams listed as PK.

Date/Time: Saturday, November 21, 7:30 PM.
Location: Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, Oklahoma.
Odds: Baylor PK -110
TV: 8 p.m. ET, ABC
Radio: Oklahoma
Online streaming: WatchESPN

A week ago, Baylor appeared to be the favorite to win the Big 12, even after quarterback Seth Russell had seen his season end with a neck injury. Freshman Jarred Stidham had come on to provide a solid job, but then Oklahoma came to town and whipped the Bears, 44-34. Stidham was not perfect in the loss, but he was far from the main problem. The Bears’ running game has largely vanished over the last two weeks. Last week, Oklahoma State struggled in a road game against Iowa State. The Cyclones are always tough at home, but that should not have been a four-point game (OSU won 35-31). At noon, the Cowboys take on Baylor in a huge test that will be even tougher than the TCU test was.

The last two games have shown some real weaknesses among the Bears. Their rushing game has only provided 262 total yards in the last two games; the fact that their per-game average is still 308 yards shows you how powerful their running game had been before. Their defense, which has been stronger this year, permitted 270 yards through the air and 241 more on the ground against OU. They have had enough offense to paper over the defensive problems in the past, but that was not the case this week. The offense trimmed the lead to 37-34, but then OU quarterback Baker Mayfield drove the team down the field on a 10-play, 78-yard march that ended with a seven-yard scoring run by Dimitri Flowers.

Baylor Bears Mybookie College Football Odds

Backup quarterback J.W. Walsh came on to throw a crucial touchdown pass to Jeff Carr with 3:06 left in the fourth quarter to help the Cowboys come back to beat Iowa State. The Cyclones had led 17-7 after the first quarter and 24-14 at halftime. The Cyclones still had a ten-point lead in the fourth quarter. The Cowboys have two solid options at quarterback, with Mason Rudolph the better passer and Walsh the better runner. Their offense puts up 43.6 points per game, rolling up 353 passing yards each week. Defense may be an issue for both teams this week.

Betting Odds Trends

Baylor Bears
  • Baylor is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 7 of Baylor’s last 10 games
  • Baylor is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
  • Baylor is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Oklahoma State
  • Baylor is 3-16 SU in its last 19 games when playing Oklahoma State
  • Baylor is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma State
  • Baylor is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma State
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baylor’s last 7 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State Cowboys
  • Oklahoma State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Oklahoma State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oklahoma State’s last 6 games
  • Oklahoma State is 16-8 ATS in its last 24 games at home
  • Oklahoma State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma State’s last 5 games at home
  • Oklahoma State is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Baylor
  • Oklahoma State is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games when playing Baylor
  • Oklahoma State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Baylor
  • Oklahoma State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Baylor
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oklahoma State’s last 7 games when playing at home against Baylor

Oklahoma State 2015 NCAAF

In their last four November games, Baylor is 0-4 against the spread. On a turf field, they are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games. Oklahoma State has gone 13-3 against the spread in their last 16 games against the series. In their last 12 games in November, they are 9-3 against the spread. While the Cowboys may have overlooked Iowa State to some degree last week, they will not make that mistake against Baylor this week. Pick the Cowboys this week – and take the under. I don’t see the Bears putting up enough points to keep up their end of the bargain.