Arizona and Arizona St Preview and Betting Odds Analysis

Posted by Aaron . on November 21, 2015 in

This week, NCAAF betting fans will have the chance to watch and enjoy a new version of the yearly Territorial Cup matchup between Arizona and Arizona State. Arizona (6-5, 3-5 Pac-12) has had an up-and-down season thanks to some injuries and some uneven execution. However, their victory last week over then-#10 Utah has given Arizona a bit of momentum going into their in-state rivalry. Let’s look at the betting odds and some of the trends that have helped and hindered Arizona and Arizona State this year as we consider their matchup.

 

Date/Time: Saturday, November 21st, 3:30 PM
Location: Sun Devil Stadium, Frank Kush Field, Tempe, Arizona
Game Odds: Arizona State -7
TV Coverage: Pac-12 Network
The game can be live streamed here

Arizona has a minus-4 turnover differential this season, which is the lowest ranking in the Pac-12 Conference. On the other hand, Arizona State has only allowed their opponents to get up to 10 plays on a drive 7.3 percent of the time. That ranks them #7 in that category in the nation. One thing that colors this a bit, though, is the penchant that the Sun Devils have for surrendering big plays to the opposition – leading to shorter drives.

Arizona has had 79.1 percent of their offensive drives lead to at least one first down or touchdown. That ranks #23 in the nation. Arizona State has the #31 defensive unit in this regard, only permitting 66.7 percent of opponent drives to yield a first down or touchdown. They are #2 in the Pac-12 in allowing the fewest first downs (19.5 per game).

Arizona Wildcats

Arizona is #4 in the Pac-12 in scoring offense (36.7 points per game). Arizona State is #11 in the nation in the metric of Adjusted Line yards from Football Outsiders, earning a 120.9 rating (100 is average). D.J. Foster has averaged 110.3 all-purpose yards in his three games against Arizona, averaging 21 touches per game. This season, he only averages 9.2 touches and 74.3 all-purpose yards in the first ten games of this season.

Last year, in the Territorial Cup, Taylor Kelly only went 13 for 22 and 144 yards with two scores before ASU pulled him out for Mike Bercovici (14 for 22, 123 yards, 2 scores, 1 pick). Will ASU require another quarterback replacement again this year?

Arizona State linebackers Antonio Longino (15) and Salamo Fiso (16) are #1 and #2 in the Pac-12 in the statistic of tackles for loss. Arizona linebacker Scooby Wright III, an All-American last year, will miss the game. He had 13 tackles, including five for a loss, a couple of sacks and a forced fumble in the game last year. This year, the Sun Devils lead the Pac-12 with 36 sacks so far this year.

Arizona State Sun Devils

Betting Odds Trends

Arizona Wildcats

In their last five meetings, the teams have combined to average 69.6 points per game. This began in 2010 when Arizona State, 30-29. Arizona quarterback Anu Solomon might not be able to play – or play much – because of a lingering concussion. This could mean that backup Jerrard Randall (more of a runner than a passer) could control the Wildcats’ fortunes. Arizona leads the all-time series, 48-39-1. Since 1946, when the game became a yearly matchup, Arizona State leads 37-31-1.

Game Prediction: Expect Arizona to ride the momentum of their upset of Utah and win this week too.