Alamo Bowl Oregon vs TCU NCAAF Betting Preview

Posted by Aaron . on December 31, 2015 in

When TCU and Oregon meet in the Alamo Bowl in San Antonio on January 2, the crowd will see two teams that thought they might be playing in the College Football Playoff semifinals but have taken this berth as a consolation prize. The game is a pick’em in the NCAAF betting polls, as a line that started 1.5 points in TCU’s favor has shifted with the action.

Why should you pick Oregon?

The Ducks are undefeated against the spread in games away from home this year. TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin was arrested outside a San Antonio bar on the morning of December 31 after he allegedly punched a police officer who had shown up to help settle an altercation. At the writing of this article, Boykin remains in jail in San Antonio, and the university has not released any statement indicating possible discipline. If Boykin isn’t the starting quarterback, that would obviously push you toward the Ducks. However, Oregon is a solid choice anyway, as their team is #6 in the nation in scoring (41.7 points per game) and total offense (548 yards per game). Vernon Adams Jr. has shaken off a slow start to throw 25 touchdown passes against just six picks. Royce Freeman is a versatile tailback who has 2,031 all-purpose yards and 16 touchdowns.

Without Doctson and Boykin, TCU will have to look for a sort of miracle vs Oregon.

Why should you take the Horned Frogs?

Oregon’s defense is fairly porous, giving up at least 35 points six different times this season, and is ranked #116 in the nation in yards permitted. The defense did stand tall in an upset of Stanford on November 15, but their usual trend has been to allow offenses to have their way. If Boykin does make it onto the field, he will find his usual targets waiting for him in Kolby Listenbee (29 catches, 598 yards, 5 touchdowns) and KaVontae Turpin (40 catches, 584 yards, 8 scores). TCU is #8 in scoring and #3 in total offense.

Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction

Obviously, Boykin’s status for this game will be crucial in determining the outcome. If he does play, I like TCU to re-assert itself as many of their injury holes have been filled, prevailing 45-34.