Mississippi State Looks to Knock off Alabama in NCAAF Betting
For many of the players on the #20 Mississippi State Bulldogs, this has been a week about anything but football. The team did roll over Missouri on the road and covered the NCAAF betting odds, however, only about 24 hours later, they found themselves mourning the death of a teammate. Freshman defensive lineman Keith Joseph Jr. and his father passed away in a one-car accident.
Betting Odds: Alabama -8
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— Alabama Football (@AlabamaFTBL) November 10, 2015
Both had gone to Pascagoula High School, down on the Mississippi Gulf Coast, and they were on the way to watch the school play its game that night. Mississippi State is set to host a memorial service for both men this Thursday, and a moment of silence will take place before Saturday’s home game against #3 Alabama, and the players will wear a decal honoring father and son. Motivation is a powerful force, and this could mean that the Crimson Tide will have even more going against them as they take on the Bulldogs this week.
Alabama is favored by eight points, and they should be encouraged by their jump up to the #2 position in the College Football Playoff standings. The Crimson Tide dominated LSU last week in a 30-16 home win that was not as close as the score indicates. However, if Alabama heads on the road and loses this week, they will find themselves on the outside looking in as far as the national semifinals go.
The fact that Mississippi State is a ranked opponent and was almost able to come back and beat the Crimson Tide will help Alabama maintain focus. Alabama is back in charge of its own destiny after Ole Miss lost to Arkansas last week, so the players know that they just need to win out to make it to the SEC title game and then to the national semifinals.
In order to win, the Tide will need to find a way to contain Dak Prescott. He gains 307.7 yards per game if you add up his rushing and passing yards, and he is the Bulldogs’ leading rusher with 418 yards on the season. Last season, he ran for 82 yards against Alabama, and the Tide only sacked him once. The focus for the Alabama defense has to be to apply pressure and make him uncomfortable in the pocket.
If Mississippi State has a chance to win, Dak Prescott has to take over the game. He is already viewed as the best quarterback ever to play for the Bulldogs. He has 36 of the school’s records and he has scored 41 touchdowns. If you include his passing touchdowns, that number swells over 100. He has completed 200 of 300 attempts this season for 18 touchdowns and just one pick. He has 2,351 yards and ranks #3 in the SEC for passing efficiency.
Betting Odds Trends
- Alabama is 8-16-1 ATS in its last 25 games
- Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Alabama’s last 6 games
- Alabama is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
- Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
- The total has gone OVER in 12 of Alabama’s last 18 games on the road
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Alabama’s last 6 games on the road
- Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Mississippi State
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Alabama’s last 8 games when playing Mississippi State
- Alabama is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Mississippi State
- Alabama is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Mississippi State
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Alabama’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Mississippi
- Mississippi State is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
- Mississippi State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
- Mississippi State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
- Mississippi State is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games at home
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Mississippi State’s last 6 games at home
- Mississippi State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Alabama
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Mississippi State’s last 8 games when playing Alabama
- Mississippi State is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Alabama
- Mississippi State is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Alabama
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Mississippi State’s last 5 games when playing at home against Alabama
Alabama head coach Nick Saban told Bleacher Report, “This offense is very, very challenging. It’s well-conceived. Dan goes a good job with it. Their players do a good job of executing it.” The Bulldogs have to keep the Crimson Tide from making big plays through the air. If they can do both of these things, they will keep it close – and I think they will. I would take Mississippi State and those eight points.