2016 Heisman Trophy Expert Betting Picks

2016 Heisman Trophy Expert Betting Picks

Written by on July 29, 2016

Even though the 2016 college football betting season has not yet started, it’s never too early to start taking a look at just who might be Heisman Trophy winner when the season comes to an end. Let’s take a look at some of the candidates, finishing up with our suggestion for the one you should pick.

Taking a Closer Look at the 2016 Heisman Trophy Expert Betting Picks

The Favorite to Win the 2016 Heisman Trophy: Deshaun Watson

One key in Watson’s favorite — he’s a quarterback. Seven of the last nine players to take the Heisman have been the team’s signal-caller. He threw for 4,109 yards and ran for 1,105 more last year, well above the average for what the last seven Heisman winners at the quarterback position achieved (3,910 and 808). He threw for 35 touchdowns against 13 picks (the average is 36 touchdowns and 7 interceptions), so his turnovers are a little higher than average. He completed 67.8 percent of his passes and ran for 12 touchdowns (the average was 68.1 percent and 14.5 touchdowns on the ground), so he’s right in there. He also has the buzz that comes with making it to the national championship game last year and being a favorite to get back to the College Football Playoff again. These factors combine to make him the odds-on favorite at this point.

The Smart Pick to Win the 2016 Heisman Trophy: Leonard Fournette

Let’s see. In 12 games, he rumbled for 1,953 yards on 300 carries, scoring 22 touchdowns. He averaged 6.5 yards a carry — and there were some games where he averaged over a dozen yards per carry. As the season wore on, he didn’t slow down; opposing teams figured out that Brandon Harris couldn’t throw the ball very well, so they loaded up the box on Fournette, limiting his options. Barry Sanders ran into the same problems when he was with the Detroit Lions, who didn’t think they needed to bother with a passing game either. If LSU learns their lesson and puts in a passing game that Harris can handle, then Fournette should have a huge season this year. A running back (Derrick Henry) won the trophy last year, so another tailback could certainly win it this year.

The Long Shot to Win the 2016 Heisman Trophy: Josh Rosen

Josh Rosen had a terrific freshman year at UCLA, although the poor record that the Bruins posted for the season overshadowed his accomplishments. He did throw for 3,670 yards and completed 60 percent of his passes. The issue is that he is losing his two biggest targets in Thomas Suarte and Jordan Payton. Another knock is that Rosen doesn’t like to run — he is a pocket passer who picked up just 15 yards on the ground last year. There have been other Heisman Trophy winners at quarterback who didn’t run much, such as Sam Bradford and Jameis Winston, but they had mad stats in the air, as Bradford threw for 4,720 yards and an eye-popping 50 touchdowns through the air, while Winston had the media advantage of playing at Florida State and threw for 40 touchdowns and 4,057 yards. But Rosen has the talent to pull it off.

My Free Pick: Leonard Fournette

He’s from the SEC, he’s a mad talent in the backfield, and the Tigers have put together an iron defense for this year. Harris has another year of seasoning behind him, so he should be able to complete passes when he needs to.