NCAAB’s Best Bet The Under Teams

Posted by Aaron . on February 6, 2016 in

When you’re betting on a sporting event, the over/under total represents the combined point total from the two teams. So if you’re looking at the Michigan-Michigan State basketball game, and the over/under total is 141.5, that means that if you take the “over,” the two teams will combine to score 142 points or more (as in a 76-70 final, which would mean 146 total points). If you take the “under,” the two teams will combine to score 141 points or fewer (obviously, you can’t push on this bet, as half-points aren’t possible). Let’s look at some of the NCAA’s basketball teams that end up producing “under” finishes the most often in the College Hoops Odds scene.

Which Teams Are The Best To Bet The Under With

Idaho (4-15-0, under 79%, avg finish -6.7 ppg)

This line means that Idaho has only gone over the total four times in 19 games, finishing under 79% of the time. On average, their games finish under the total by 6.7 points per game. Idaho isn’t one of the major contenders in their conference, so you’ll want to look at their opponent in the standings. If they are playing the top team in their conference, you may want to stay away from this bet, as a rout could be on. However, if they are playing a team near them in their conference, the under might be a strong bet as they tend to keep scoring down all the time and aren’t likely to let their opponent drive the total over.

Texas Christian University (5-11-0, under 68.8%, avg finish -3.8 ppg)

TCU is one of the bottom-feeders in the Big 12. However, they haven’t been letting the majority of their games get out of hand. They lost to #12 SMU by five at home, for example, so even though #1 Oklahoma put up 95 on them, for the most part, they tend to keep their opponents in the 70s, even when they lose. They even knocked off Tennessee in the SEC-Big 12 Challenge last weekend. So this is a team that will use their defense to stay in games and keep totals low; unless they’re playing someone like Kansas or Oklahoma in the conference, I would consider taking the under with the Frogs.

Texas A&M (6-11-0, under 64.7%, avg finish -6.1 ppg)

When the #5 team in the nation finishes under the majority of the time, this tells you that the team’s strength is defense. While the Aggies have had some routs against some of their weaker non-conference foes and against some of the weaker SEC teams, when they are playing the tougher teams, such as Florida and Kentucky, they tend to keep scores low because of their defensive emphasis. So when they are playing a competitive game, I’d look for an under finish.

Connecticut (6-11-1, under 64.7%, avg finish .6.6 ppg)

Connecticut plays in the American Athletic Conference and is one of the stronger defensive units in that league this year. There are a lot of teams who are close to each other in the standings (Connecticut, Cincinnati, Tulsa, SMU and Temple are all in a fairly close logjam), and so when Connecticut has a grinder of a game, I would pick them to use their defense to slow things down and take an under.