NBA Total Season Win Odds You Can Still Bet On

Posted by Aaron . on February 17, 2016 in

We’re past the All-Star break now, and so a lot of the teams in the NBA are finding their seasons to be better (or worse) than the prognosticators had thought when the season began. Let’s take a look at where the 30 teams in the Association are in comparison to their original total season win projections. The projected win total refers to the original lines that online sportsbooks set before the season started. The NBA total wins column indicates whether they will be over or under that total if they keep winning at the pace they have won over the season thus far.

 

TeamProjected Win TotalCurrent RecordOver/Under
Atlanta Hawks49.531-24Under
Boston Celtics42.532-23Over
Brooklyn Nets28.514-40Under
Charlotte Hornets34.527-26Over
Chicago Bulls49.527-25Under
Cleveland Cavaliers56.538-14Over
Dallas Mavericks37.529-26Over
Denver Nuggets26.522-32Over
Detroit Pistons34.527-27Over
Golden State60.548-4Over
Houston Rockets54.527-28Under
Indiana Pacers41.528-25Over
L.A. Clippers56.535-18Under
L.A. Lakers29.511-44Under
Memphis Grizzlies50.531-22Under
Miami Heat45.529-24On Track
Milwaukee Bucks44.522-32Under
Minnesota Wolves26.517-37Under
New Orleans Pelicans47.520-33Under
New York Knicks30.523-32Over
OKC Thunder56.540-14Over
Orlando Magic34.523-29Over
Philadelphia 76ers21.58-45Under
Phoenix Suns36.514-40Under
Portland Trail Blazers26.527-27Over
Sacramento Kings32.522-31Over
San Antonio Spurs58.545-8Over
Toronto Raptors45.535-17Over
Utah Jazz41.526-26On Track
Washington Wizards45.523-28Under

 
These numbers can obviously be a little misleading in some cases, as some teams have not followed a consistent trajectory throughout the regular season. Yes, the Sixers have been simply awful, and the Warriors have been unstoppable except for a hiccup around the holidays. But if you take a team like Dallas, who got off to a relatively hot start and then found their porous defense exposed, then you can see that they could slip under — you’d want to take a look at their upcoming schedule and see how those last 28 games are going to go. Sure, they only have to win eight of them, but if the end of their schedule is heavy on playoff opponents, and if Dirk goes down to injury, that could be a problem.

Another example would be a team like the Clippers, who were scuffling along at the start of the season but, since Blake Griffin’s injury, have been playing almost perfect ball, winning 15 of their first 18 games after he went on the shelf. So even though their numbers point them to an “under” finish, if they keep winning at this new rate, they could end up over. So don’t make this chart the only source of information that you use when you place this type of bet.