NBA Total Season Win Odds You Can Still Bet On
We’re past the All-Star break now, and so a lot of the teams in the NBA are finding their seasons to be better (or worse) than the prognosticators had thought when the season began. Let’s take a look at where the 30 teams in the Association are in comparison to their original total season win projections. The projected win total refers to the original lines that online sportsbooks set before the season started. The NBA total wins column indicates whether they will be over or under that total if they keep winning at the pace they have won over the season thus far.
|Team||Projected Win Total||Current Record||Over/Under|
|Miami Heat||45.5||29-24||On Track|
|New Orleans Pelicans||47.5||20-33||Under|
|New York Knicks||30.5||23-32||Over|
|Portland Trail Blazers||26.5||27-27||Over|
|San Antonio Spurs||58.5||45-8||Over|
|Utah Jazz||41.5||26-26||On Track|
These numbers can obviously be a little misleading in some cases, as some teams have not followed a consistent trajectory throughout the regular season. Yes, the Sixers have been simply awful, and the Warriors have been unstoppable except for a hiccup around the holidays. But if you take a team like Dallas, who got off to a relatively hot start and then found their porous defense exposed, then you can see that they could slip under — you’d want to take a look at their upcoming schedule and see how those last 28 games are going to go. Sure, they only have to win eight of them, but if the end of their schedule is heavy on playoff opponents, and if Dirk goes down to injury, that could be a problem.
Another example would be a team like the Clippers, who were scuffling along at the start of the season but, since Blake Griffin’s injury, have been playing almost perfect ball, winning 15 of their first 18 games after he went on the shelf. So even though their numbers point them to an “under” finish, if they keep winning at this new rate, they could end up over. So don’t make this chart the only source of information that you use when you place this type of bet.