The NBA’s Best UNDER Betting Teams

Posted by Aaron . on February 7, 2016 in

The over/under total is one of the more interesting bets in basketball, particularly as the game is winding down the stretch and each basket is bringing the game either closer to making you a winner — or closer to causing you to add more money to your online sports book account. Let’s take a look at some of the teams that are closer to being locks to finish under the total.

The NBA’s Best UNDER Betting Teams

Miami Heat (17-32-1, under 65.3%, avg finish -2.9 ppg)

What do these numbers mean? The Heat have finished 17-32-1 against the over/under total. In other words, they’ve only gone over in 17 of those games, and they’ve finished under 32 times — and finished at the exact total once. So if the over/under total is 200, and the final score is 100-98, that’s 198 points (under). However, if someone knocks down a three at the buzzer for a 103-98 score, that’s 201 — and an over, and a change in someone’s betting fortunes. The average means that, for the season, they have finished under the total an average of 2.9 points per game.

The Heat have more of a reputation for a suffocating defense than a strong offense. Sure, they still have Dwyane Wade, who has a few rock ‘em sock ‘em games in him each month, but for the most part, the offense lags behind the defense, and so a lot of the games end up under the total.

Dallas Mavericks (22-29-1, under 56.9%, avg finish -2.7 ppg)

This is more of a sign of the Mavericks’ offensive problems than it is their defensive prowess. While they were pretty good on defense early on, they haven’t done as good of a job earning spots down the stretch, and so they’ve had a number of losses — and failed to score up to the over/under total. Having Dirk Nowitzki and Chandler Parsons (and Wesley Matthews) on the same team means that this is a team that could pour in the points, but they’re just not doing that regularly enough to hit the “over.”

Oklahoma City Thunder (22-28-1, under 56.0%, avg finish +2.0 ppg)

This stat line is a bit of an oddity. Even though the team has finished under the total in 22 of their 51 games so far, they have scored a total of 102 points more than the sum of their totals — because they are finishing an average of 2.0 points per game over the total line.

How does this work? Well, it means that when the team goes over, they go over by a lot more than the difference when they go under the total. Given that Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have been scoring in bunches lately, I’d be very careful about taking the Thunder to go under right now, unless one or both of those two is resting for the game.

L.A. Lakers (23-28-1, under 54.9%, avg finish -2.5 ppg)

The Lakers have won two games in a row, but they still have one of the more punchy defenses in the NBA. Laker coach Byron Scott has been working hard to preach better defense with this group, but while they have been improving, their low finishes on the over/under total line says just about as much as shortcomings on the offensive end as anything else. However, if the Lakers are paired up with an East team, think about going under as the style of play will go slower.